Poles will still be happy to hunt for housing loans. Here is the latest Pie forecast

The number of applications for a housing loan in the following months should stay at the level of July – assess the analysts of the Polish Economic Institute.

“In the following months, the number of conclusions will probably stay at a similar level or will continue to grow,” Pie analysts wrote, commenting on BIK readings.

According to data from the Credit Information Bureau (BIK), 40.4 thousand requested a mortgage people, i.e. by 33.7 percent more than a year ago.

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Pie indicates that such a high number of applications has not been reported from the third quarter of 2021, when low interest rates were in force, except for the fourth quarter of 2023, in which the demand was artificially increased by the “Safe 2 % Credit” program.

Pie estimates that the increase in demand for housing loans results from three main factors increasing the creditworthiness of households.

“First of all, in 2025 the Monetary Policy Council reduced the reference interest rate twice – in May by 50 base points and in July by another 25 base points. These were the first cuts after nineteen months of stable feet, which could encourage many borrowers to submit a mortgage application. What's more, with inflation of 3.1 % in July 2025 in July 2025 and announcements of low inflation until the end of 2025 (in accordance with the inflationary goal of the NBP), the market is expecting further rates of foot – up to 4.5 percent.

It was added that second, Flats prices are increasing more slowly than in previous quartersand in some cities are falling. Pie stated that the data of the National Bank of Poland regarding transaction prices indicate that in the second quarter of 2025 on the secondary market in seven largest cities prices increased by 1.7 percent, from the ten other voivodship cities – by 4.6 percent. On the primary market, the increase in RDR was 2.2 percent, respectively. and 3.7 percent For comparison, in mid -2024, increases in the secondary market reached almost 20 percent.

It is worth emphasizing that in the data for the second quarter of 2025 there is no effect on the May rate reduction effect, because they cover the period from March to May – wrote Pie.

Thirdly – according to PIE, salaries are growing, both in nominal and real terms. In the mid -mid -2025, the average gross salary in the enterprise sector (companies employing at least 10 people) was by 8.7 percent. higher than a year ago. With inflation slightly above the NBP target, the real purchasing power of remuneration in the first half of 2025 increased by 4.2 percent. (PAP Biznes)

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