According to the latest CBO report, changes in customs tariffs will reduce the US -$ 3.3 trillion deficits to 2035, and an additional $ 700 billion will be savings from lower interest payments. “Trump was right,” the president said, commenting on the results of the analyzes and emphasizing that duties revenues would be much higher than expected.
The CBO report indicates that The current duties were to bring around $ 200 billion. revenues as early as 2023, which is a significant increase compared to the current average level of $ 80 billion. annually from the last five years. The estimated impact of current customs tariffs on lowering public debt turned out to be a third higher compared to previous forecasts of May this year.
As the British daily Economists CBO writes at the same time that their calculations regarding the impact of duties are fraught with uncertainty, mainly due to questions about their durability, possible exclusions and the history of their use. According to the director of the Agency Phillip Swagel, the influence of tariffs on the level of public debt is significant.
A side effect of the Trump Act on expenses
As the Financial Times writes, additional revenues from duties will be crucial in the context of the effects of the introduction of the presidential law “One Big Beautiful Bill Act”, which will increase the level of public debt by $ 4.1 trillion in a decade. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent emphasizes that customs revenues should increase significantly compared to previous assumptions, which will allow the repayment of a part of the debt.
“We intend to reduce the deficit against GDP,” Bessent said in an interview with CNBC, stating that tariff revenues should ultimately bring financial benefits to US citizens.
Rating agency rating
Customs revenues have also been included in the analyzes of the S&P Global and Fitch agencies. Lisa Schineller, director of state ratings at S&P, indicated that the influx of additional revenues was of key importance in the decision to maintain the US public debt rating at the current level, despite the burdens arising from the Trump Act.
Fitch, although she also appreciated the “rapid increase in duties”, warned that the announced decreases in deficits could be short -term. The agency predicts that after temporary improvement, public deficits will increase again in 2026-2027.
