According to the expert, European forces guarding the war in Ukraine could resemble US troops stationed in South Korea. In the event of a re -assault on the part of Russia, they would fight the aggressor alongside the Ukrainian army. This, however, raises military and political problems.
King positively assessed the Monday meeting of US President Donald Trump, President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelanski and a group of European leaders. He emphasized that Trump's administration supported Ukraine's security guarantee in the event of peace with Russia.
– The question is, what does it mean? Will the fact that the US will provide adequate military skills and support, like their European colleagues? I have doubts – said King. – Rather, they will allow European security to grant Ukraine a security guarantee – he assessed.
Security guarantees for Ukraine. The expert indicates three problems
– Will Europe be able to grant these security guarantees? Apart from the question of whether Russia will agree and territorial issues, it seems that there are three problems with European security guarantees – said King.
In his opinion, the first is the issue of Europe's military abilities. – The US has so far passed about half of all military support for Ukraine and, to be honest, it was the most important equipment and support. Is the USA to grant a security guarantee that will be able to protect and deter Russian aggression without a significant US contribution? I doubt it a bit – he noted.
The second problem is political and institutional. If the US only allow European guarantees, but they are not involved in them, they will not be guarantees from NATO, but only from the European “Coalitions of Volunteers”. This, in turn, would be problematic due to the lack of appropriate command structures. The political status of any peaceful forces would also be unclear.
The third point is a matter of the will of the involved countries. According to King, peace forces in Ukraine would resemble US troops stationed in South Korea and in the case of an attack they would fight on the side of Ukraine. – The question is, did Europe quite understand this deterrence and fight in the case of Russia's future aggression against Ukraine and is it determined enough for it? The expert asked.
– Security guarantees are necessary, but I think it will be very difficult to organize them in practice. This is not impossible. I think there will be a way, but it will be complicated – summed up the lecturer at the University of Exeter.
Safety guarantees and no specific declarations
At the meeting of Trump with Zelanski and European leaders on Monday, the issue of security guarantee for Ukraine was discussed in the White House, but no specific declarations were made. The participants' statements show that the details are to be refined in subsequent conversations in the coming days.
Although Trump was the first to declare that he would support European efforts and would “coordinate them”, it is not known what the role of the US will be. A spokeswoman for the White House Karoline Leavitt said on Tuesday that American soldiers would not be sent to Ukraine, but the US can help in coordination activities. She added that other funds under the security guarantee are also possible.
