Trump – Zelenski – Europe. What is the stakes of the territories that will be discussed on Monday, at Washington / What an Information Officer says
A Ukrainian intelligence officer stated for The Economist that the Americans are “incredibly aggressive” in pressing Ukraine to give up more territory. This generates high fears, in the perspective of Washington Monday's discussions and a possible trilateral Trump-Putin-Zenski summit.
In Kyiv and Europe, the initial reaction after the Alaska summit was a relief. But now, the Ukrainians are afraid of what will follow.
Initial relief is explainable. Donald Trump did not conclude an agreement with Vladimir Putin to satisfy him immediately all the requests. “The disaster was avoided: Trump did not sell us,” commented a parliamentarian from Kiev on Saturday.
But, as the information has materialized in an increasingly clear perspective of Russia's claims, some that Ukraine will not be able to accept, trust has left an uneasiness.
And the first reason for anxiety is the meeting planned on Monday in Washington between Trump and President Volodimir Zelenski, one that arouses painful memories of the Diplomatic Disaster of February in the Oval Office.
Europe and NATO are shielding around Ukraine. At the Monday meeting with Trump will go and von der Leyen, plus five European leaders
The Economist warns that the “nightmare” of a Trump-Putin pact on Ukraine has not disappeared.
The good news for the Ukrainian leader is that this time, along with him, in Washington, will be the European allies, who on Sunday met to agree on the position they will hold.
Then there are discussions about a possible three summit: Trump-Putin-Zenski, but it is unclear if it will take place.
A possible crucial meeting
The last time Zelenski was in the Oval Office, in February, Trump disregarded it because he “had no books” to play and expel from the White House. Now, when Zelenski is sitting again at the table, he is likely to face huge pressure.
Trump has long emphasized that Ukraine is in a weak position and claimed that he had to conclude an agreement with Russia. Last time immediately after the Alaska summit.
Some sources believe that it is possible for Zelenski to be proposed a ready -made agreement, writes The Economist.
However, the Ukrainian leader will be accompanied by other European officials in Washington – Chancellor Friedrich Merz has already announced that he will be there, as well as the chairman of the Commission Ursula von Der Leyen, the French President Emmanuel Macron and the British Prime Minister Keir Starmer.
The Secretary General of NATO Mark Rutte, President of Finland, Alexander Stubb, who had the opportunity to meet Trump earlier this year in Florida, where they played together Golf, and the Prime Minister of Italy Giorgia Meloni will also be there.
The support of European allies would reduce something from the pressure on the shoulders of the Ukrainian president.
European shield around Ukraine. What is the position of Romania
The willing coalition reunited on Sunday, virtual, to prepare the strategy for the Washington Monday meeting.
European leaders have agreed that Ukraine should receive security guarantees so that negotiations on the conclusion of the war with Russia can continue, said Czech Petr Fiala, quoted by Reuters.
“Our goal is to present a common front between European allies and Ukraine,” Macron said.
And the Foreign Minister of Poland insisted that an armistice must be a condition for the beginning of peace negotiations.
What is the position of Romania?
“The consolidation of Ukraine means strengthening the security of Europe and our region,” said Nicușor Dan, after attending the virtual meeting on Sunday. .
“Within the coalition, we have expressed our willingness to contribute, together with the United States and our European partners, to offering solid security-essential guarantees in this process of peace. History has shown us that Russia does not respect its own commitments,” said the president.
“As Ukraine's neighbors, our contribution to these security guarantees means a direct investment in our own security,” he added.
Ukrainian fears
Ukrainian officials insist that the conduct of negotiations are constructive and refer to European discussions on the security guarantees for Ukraine supported by the US.
“It is trying to get somewhere,” said an official quoted by The Economist.
In private, however, they are afraid that the US president has allowed the end of the war to be rewritten in the terms of Russia.
The most obvious change is the new acceptance of the favorite order by Russia.
Any perspective of a complete armistice as the first stage or of the severe sanctions promised once by Trump had disappeared if Putin did not agree with it.
On Saturday, Serchii Leșcenko, Ukrainian presidential adviser, reiterated the position of Ukraine: the armistice must precede a general agreement to freeze or terminate the conflict.
Only Trump, aligning himself with Putin, now says that the immediate goal must be a comprehensive peace.
It is a prospect of the type “everything or nothing” that could be easily sabotaged by malicious actors – or used to obtain maximum concessions.
“Americans seem to agree with Putin, whether they are aware or not.”
Sources in the field of Ukrainian security say they are worried about what “global peace” means.
For Putin, this seems to continue to eliminate what he calls the “deep causes” of the Ukraine war, a vision he presented in a belligerent essay in 2021, in which he exposed his arguments in favor of the invasion.
In translation, he opposed the expansion of NATO to the east after the fall of the Berlin Wall and the independence of Ukraine.
In that essay, Putin spoke of Ukraine and Russia as “one people”.
It is unclear whether or not Trump understood Putin's signal, but he didn't say anything to contradict him.
“For Putin, a comprehensive peace means to change us,” said an Ukrainian official for The Economist.
“And now the Americans seem to agree, or they are aware of it or not,” he added.
He, say the commentators, wants a great understanding with Putin, to put an end to the war, to redefine security in Europe and to include agreements in several fields, from energy to Arctic.
“Under Putin's spell, Trump is an incapable politician”
Roman Bezsmertni, a former Ukrainian diplomat, said that Putin “mocked” the US president and his desire to obtain the Nobel Peace Prize.
“This is not a tragedy for Ukraine. It is a tragedy for America and the world. Under the spell of Mr. Putin, Trump is an incapable politician,” he noticed.
During July, the secret contacts between Ukraine and Russia brought the two countries closer to an understanding of how the war could be frozen.
But the subsequent discussions between Putin and Steve Witkoff, Trump's emissary, have created a number of new impossible territorial requests for Ukraine.
At the Friday summit, Putin again asked Ukraine to retreat from the areas of Luhansk and Donetsk provinces, which together represent the most fortified sections of the front line.
This would put Putin in a much stronger position to attack again in the future if he decides to do so.
Instead, the Russian president offered to return small portions of the territory occupied in the provinces of Sumî and Kharkov and to freeze the current lines in Zaporojie and Herson.
Americans are “incredibly aggressive” in pressing Ukraine to give up more territory
The years of war have exhausted the Ukrainian people, and Russia continues to exercise their advantage.
It is no wonder therefore that opinion polls show a clear change to the pragmatism of the population, which is much more open to an armistice.
Most of those questioned are now in favor of recognizing the de facto occupation of the areas that Russia already holds, in exchange for real security guarantees from the West.
However, there is a consistent and overwhelming majority against any additional territorial concessions towards Russia.
A Ukrainian intelligence officer said the Americans are “incredibly aggressive” in pressing Ukraine to give up more territory.
Russia's interest is quite clear, he says. “They want to maximize the package they will receive in return – from lifting the sanctions, to the return of the confiscated goods, to the reopening of the energy markets,” he said.
What is much less clear, he added, is the reason why the Trump administration insisted so strong to promote Russia's interests.
Several observers offered the reasons. Trump wants a great understanding with Putin, to put an end to the war, to redefine security in Europe and to include agreements in several fields, from energy to Arctic.
Plus, they would probably want to win the Nobel for Peace.
The role of Europe
Many believe that Europe will now play a key role.
After the Alaska summit, Trump discussed for one hour on the phone with European leaders and Zelenski.
In a statement, European leaders have stated that “we will continue to strengthen the sanctions and greater economic measures to exert pressure on the Russia's war economy until a fair and sustainable peace is established. Ukraine can count on our unwavering solidarity in our efforts to achieve a peace that protects the vital interests of Ukraine.”
On Sunday, after the summit of the will of the will, they reiterated this position.
Macron emphasized the need to respect the territorial integrity of Ukraine, while the president of the European Council Antonio Costa has appealed to the US to maintain the transatlantic unit.
There is evidence that Trump listens to Keir Starmer, Friedrich Merz, Emmanuel Macron and Alexander Stubb, so their interventions could have a weight, I think the commentators.
Europe, writes The Economist, would have a much greater influence if they did and spend more.
For a long time it has not been so and only in recent months the cumulative military aid through procurement contracts finally surpassed that of America, according to the Kiel Institute, a reflection group.
Europe can do more by providing funds for the purchase of US weapons, making its own military equipment and ammunition and supporting Ukraine to build its own military-industrial complex.
It would also point out that if Zelenski and Europe eventually reject an agreement with which Trump and Putin agree, and America then completely give up its support, Ukraine is still able to fight further.
