Putin spoke in a similar tone at a press conference. – It remains to be hoped that the agreement we reached will open the way to peace in Ukraine. We hope that in Kiev and in European capitals they will accept it in a constructive spirit and will not accept it as a provocation and will not want to harm any progress in this matter – he said.
Neither Trump nor Putin said exactly what's going on. Trump has repeatedly emphasized, however, that his goal is to end the war, and the first step was to be a ceasefire.
Except from Russia's point of view, which is currently gaining on the front, the unconditional suspension of weapons would be a failure and devotion to the greatest asset. That is why the conversation in Alaska most likely focused on what Russia could receive in exchange for arrest its war machine.
The fact that Trump and Putin did not immediately hit the market may indicate that the issue that the Russian president wanted to obtain is Ukraine's neutrality.
Russia went to the war in February 2022. precisely to prevent further rapprochement (mainly military) of Ukraine with the West. In addition, Putin spoke more than once about the need for Ukrainian neutrality. Logic, therefore, suggests that it was a matter – or one of the issues – to which the Russians wanted to decide in exchange for the suspension of weapons.
Continuation of the material under the video
Only that Trump, although he seems to be favorable to such a solution, could not give such a guarantee to Putin without the formal consent of NATO and Ukraine. And probably that's why he claims that now the ball is on the Zelanski side and that he has to talk to the Ukrainian president and European leaders (the telephone conversation took place on Saturday morning, and to an urgent meeting in Washington with Zelanski is to take place on Monday).
The very fact that Putin and Trump would be able to communicate in the matter of Ukrainian neutrality and formal closure of the door to NATO does not mean that this will happen. First, they would have to overcome numerous obstacles that stand in the way of such a solution.
First of all, although the Americans have a great negotiating advantage over Europe and Ukraine (and can force them to many things, which we knew even in the case of US-EU trade talks), so far European countries have clearly made it clear that they are not intending to formally withdraw from the policy of “open door” NATO. It is unlikely that Trump could change in a short time.
Secondly, it does not indicate that the policy of “open doors” would be ready to withdraw NATO itself. The Secretary General of the Alliance Mark Rutte has recently done a lot to manage Trump and convince him that NATO remains an important alliance, but he will probably not be so willing to reject the policy that he supported for years and on which NATO decided to base his credibility.
Thirdly, European and American public opinion would not so easily agree that Trump and Putin jointly decide about Ukrainian neutrality and closing the door to NATO for Kiev. Trump has a great ability to convince millions of Americans, but in this matter it is very unlikely. Rather, it should be expected that the indignation of liberal public opinion would affect Trump's policy in this case, and maybe even forced him to withdraw from the actions taken.
Erd Sahin / PAP
Mark Rutte, Secretary General of NATO
Fourthly, the issue of the future Ukrainian membership in NATO is recorded in the Ukrainian constitution. This means that if Ukraine was to become a neutral state, it would have to change its constitution (not to mention the whole direction of foreign policy). Zelanski has so far protested against such a solution. And even if he were forced to him by the Americans, how would Ukrainian society react? Or other counting political forces? It remains a big unknown.
Time is not playing in favor of Ukraine. Nor Europe
All this boils down to the fact that Trump would be very difficult to force Europeans and Ukrainians to a fundamental return on the military status of Ukraine. If it did not actually succeed, it can be expected that Russia will continue to fight in Ukraine to get as much as possible on the front.
And this is a fatal scenario primarily for Ukraine (for Europe also), because with each week and month it will lose subsequent parts of the territory, and its negotiating position will weaken.
The problem is that Europeans and Zelanski's administration do not seem to understand that time is not their ally and that there is a very high risk, that the later the agreement is concluded, the worse conditions they will be able to obtain – both from Trump and from Putin.
Read more: Here's what Europeans heard from Trump. New information
I’m Ashley Davis as an editor, I’m committed to upholding the highest standards of integrity and accuracy in every piece we publish. My work is driven by curiosity, a passion for truth, and a belief that journalism plays a crucial role in shaping public discourse. I strive to tell stories that not only inform but also inspire action and conversation.
