“Putin has already won, not only the war, but also peace. Peace that will last very little” – historical, about the Alaska summit
Russia has already achieved a historical advantage, by returning to the logic of understandings between the great powers, following the meeting in Alaska, says the historian Mădălin Hodor.
Photo source: AFP
“The most important achievement of Putin is the return to the system of agreements between the great powers”, said Mădălin Hodor. According to the historian, the Kremlin pointed out in two major directions: Trump recognition as an equal partner, in contrast to the previous position of Barack Obama, who considers Russia “a second -hand power” and imposing the idea that war is not with Ukraine, but with the whole West.
“Putin has argued since the beginning of the invasion of Ukraine that the war is with the” West “and consequently it has nothing to negotiate with Ukraine. He will settle with the US. It is a return to the Munich 1938 system. The great powers have the right to divide the territories and to impose their” small countries “. explained the historian.
Trump, the risk of repeating Chamberlain's errors
Another serious consequence, in Hodor's opinion, is the collapse of the propagandistic and moral front of Europe. “The moral kick and propaganda given to the European partners, I also put Romania (which newer not only is no longer on the door, is no longer).”
He shows that so far Western governments have tried to maintain the support of the population for Ukraine at an acceptable level but “All this is over yesterday. It will be difficult for impossible to convince someone to support Ukraine, given that it is obvious to what things are going.”
As for Donald Trump, Hodor believes that he has bet on the negotiator image, but risks repeating the historical errors of British Prime Minister Neville Chamberlain. “President Trump also got something. Or he thinks he has obtained. He brought Putin to negotiations and will probably continue. There may be an armistice, we don't know. (…) But President Trump risks playing the role of Chamberlain. A paper. And what Vladimir replied will see soon. says Mădălin Hodor.
Hari Bucur-Marcu: “A strategic improvisation”
Finally, the historian criticizes the lack of reaction of the Romanian political class: “As for ours, they are stolen as usual. He is waiting to tell the Europeans what to do and said. Which Europeans expect from Americans what they have to say and done. Which Americans expect from the Russians. Which is a situation of all laughter, if it were not to cry. ”
Security Policy Expert Hari Bucur-Marcu believes, in turn, that the Alaska meeting was “Only an attempt to convince the Russian aggressor to stop his aggression on Ukraine”. In an analysis published on Facebook, he stressed that the meeting did not lead to a cessation of fire, but represented “A stage of a larger process” by which the West tries to cause Moscow to accept at least one temporary armistice.
“It was obvious to everyone who watched the events in Alaska live that it did not get there, at the conviction of the Russians, with little in the forehead, to stop the war, that is, their aggression on Ukraine, or at least to cease, for a sufficient period of time to negotiate the configuration of the next stages and ultimately, ” He wrote Bucur-Marcu. In his opinion, the Americans did everything possible to allow the summit, from military demonstrations to adjustment of the discussions, but the process remains “a strategic improvisation”.
“We must admit that we are in the face of a strategic improvisation, which has no precedent and which can develop in one direction or the other, depending on the parameters difficult to anticipate”, COnform to Bucur-Marcu.
The context of the Alaska meeting
The Trump-Putin meeting in Alaska took place on Friday, at Anchorage's Elmendorf-Richardson military base, and lasted two and a half hours. The two leaders appeared together on the red carpet, while over them were flying American military aircraft, including a stealth B-2 bomber.
The joint press conference ended without questions from journalists. Donald Trump said they “made some progress” and that the meeting was “extremely productive”, but stressed that “An agreement does not exist until it is truly completed ”. In turn, Vladimir Putin said that Russia is ready to “Work on the security of Ukraine ” and proposed that the next meeting take place in Moscow.
