The first reactions of savings to the GDP ad: “significant” reviews and a great discrepancy between seasonal and unpaid adjusted growth
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In annual terms, the economy increased by +0.3%, under the consensus of Bloomberg of +0.6% year/year. There have been significant reviews of the data of historical series. Today's data can also be revised in the future, I write BCR economists in a note sent to investors on Thursday.
“We expect the consumption to continue to decelerate in the second quarter, but this could also mean a smaller negative impact from net exports. Investments should record a relatively strong growth contribution,” the BCR report shows.
In view of the figures in the second quarter, they decided to maintain, at least until the forecast is detailed, the estimation of the GDP dynamics at +1.3% for this year.
“There is a high discrepancy between the annual seasonal growth rate and the unpaid figure. Until we get the detailed values that explain the discrepancy between the two is very difficult to achieve,” they say.
