Ace from Putin's hand at the Alaska summit. Will Ukraine be sacrificed for Arctic resources?

Putin forces the front to have the winning books in front of Trump. In addition to the military advantage, Putin brings to the negotiations in Alaska and economic arguments, such as the common energy, and geopolitical energy-cracking of the Russian-Chinese alliance, says the historian Cosmin Popa.

Putin will tell Trump what he wants to hear. Photo: EPA EFE

From a military point of view, Russia seems to get important victories on the Ukraine front just a few days before the Alaska summit, where Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin will meet.

Russian forces carry out an accelerated terrestrial offensive in eastern Ukraine, trying to occupy as much territory in the Donbas region. The advance could provide Russia with a substantial advantage in negotiations on possible cessation of hostilities.

Donald Trump's position seems to be a favorable one in Russia, in the context of talking about an “exchange of territories” to serve the “interests of both parties”, although President Zelenski and European allies have stressed that a loss of territories is not acceptable.

“Adevărul” discussed with the historian Cosmin Popa, a researcher of the “Nicolae Iorga” Institute of History of the Romanian Academy, specialized in the history of the former USSR and of European Communism, on how to see the Putin-TRUMP summit and about the AS from the sleeve of the Russian President.

One of these aces in Putin's sleeve is related to the Arctic, whose strategic value as a shipping route and as a source of raw materials made the area a point of interest for Chinese ambitions. In 2024, American officials warned the growing partnership between Beijing and Moscow in the Arctic region. With the melting of ice, the area is becoming more and more attractive to the great powers of the world, but also a potential reason for conflict between them, considering that the geopolitical situation of the area is not clarified.

A Russian-American collaboration for Arctic resources, which would mean a blow to China, can be one of the points on the negotiation table supports the historian Cosmin Popa.

“The White House is looking to descend the expectations of the expectations from this meeting”

truth: How do you think Russia has prepared this summit?

Cosmin Popa: It is clear that he was prepared because there were some preparatory meetings led by Steve Witkoff, and from the Russian by Usakov. I think at the moment the issues in question have been invented.

What is relevant is that the White House is already looking to descend, if you want, the expectations of the expectations from this meeting, saying about it is a taping meeting.

So, from this point of view, I do not think we have to expect the plenary resolutions of the topics under discussion, because there are many topics, there is the collaboration on Arctic, surely the problems of the North Caucasus will also be discussed, the problems of Central Asia, the Russian-Chinese relationships.

What is the situation in Russia before the summit? On the front, do we see that the Russian army is making progress, but internally? There are analysts who say they would be at the end of the powers in terms of financial resources. How do you see these issues?

I think it is important to emphasize that between the agenda and the foreign policy actions of Russia and the internal situation in this country there is not always a direct connection and it may condition the steps in foreign policy.

At this moment, of course, Russia is also quite pressed to find a political solution that suits her. We have no sign that the general staff in which Russia sees the resolution of the war have changed. We are talking about the same problems related to the organization of the European security system.

From this point of view, things are quite clear: for Russia, this summit is the beginning of a very long discussion, but at the end of which, in which it sees the situation, it must be reached a sphere of influence that this country has in various areas of the world, and which no one will dispute.

Russia is now quite prepared, sure that the economic situation is not of the best and sure that in the long term this war effort can no longer continue in the way the economy is organized and especially the society, but this situation is not a pressure factor that will cause Putin to make great concessions at least in the Ukrainian problem.

What do you think would be willing to negotiate Russia at the moment?

There are several things that Russia shows, at least indirectly, willing to negotiate. Let's say the situation of Herson in exchange for establishing a direct terrestrial corridor between Russia and Crimea to double the famous bridge. I think there are negotiation possibilities regarding the situation of the Russian minority in Ukraine, the problem of Ukrainian children abducted and taken to Russia.

On the merits, in the Ukrainian problem Russia seems to have kept the same rigid position because in the discussion, at this moment, it is not a peace treaty that regulates all the long-term issues, but rather a freeze of war. Being in the face of a discussion about the freezing of the war, I think it is important how the international system will be outlined to be able to guarantee that a third attack against Ukraine will not just become a matter of time. But what is very, very certain when we talk about the Russian-Ukrainian conflict is that both Ukraine and Russia, if a conflict is reached regardless of the exchanges of territories that can be done, both countries and peoples will be largely dominated by the feeling of revenge.

“The White House gave up the ultimate language to Putin, because this does not work with him”

The chronology of events could make us believe that this summit came against the background of the tariffs imposed by India and the threat with sanctions for other states that trade with Russian oil. Do you think it is a coincidence or is there a causal link between the two situations?

Of course, the new American policy and the ads that the White House has made lately have played an important role, especially if we discuss from the perspective of Russia's economic situation. However, in addition to these firm promises related to sanctions, I think it is more important to observe that the White House has given up the ultimate language about Putin's address, which shows that this manner has been given up, because it is clear that it does not work with Vladimir Putin. This does not mean that President Trump has a very clear plan on how peace in Ukraine should look.

I am afraid that peace in Ukraine is both from the American and Russian perspective just a problem to be disputed, the agenda being a very wide one. Or, being several important issues for the two political leaders it is very possible to operate based on the principle of communicating vessels, namely the rigid positions in a certain matter, if you want, compensated or counterbalanced by slightly elastic positions. So things can be carried out in an unpredictable way if you go with the whole block in question.

Many analysts say that this summit is a victory of Putin just before starting. How is this summit presented in Russia?

Of course, Putin's return to the foreground of international events and the exit from the western quasi-resolution, because only the West has retained this isolation, can be considered a victory. The fact that Putin did on Trump to give up the idea of a peace treaty and to follow only a cessation of fire, may also have interpreted as a victory. The expectations that the Kremlin sets are not very clear, because Putin knows exactly that no political or diplomatic victory has guaranteed during this meeting. Things are not yet clear, they are not established. Again, the White House has announced that it is a taping meeting. Precisely in order not to be put in complicated situations, the Kremlin avoids setting a certain expectations. But it is obvious that Russian propaganda enjoys this return of Putin and Russia in the main picture of the international diplomatic process.

What can Trump's Russia offer? Putin's ace

The Trump Summit – Putin makes many analysts to say that the situation of the War in Ukraine will be decided by the two great powers, the US and Russia, without taking into account other involved parties. Can such treaties be made today between great powers that ignore a part or even more that have a say in the conflict?

Of course, such agreements are possible. The problem is that if we talk about the role of Europe and Ukraine in this discussion of the war, the parameters of a sustainable peace without European involvement can be established.

Even in Trump's conception, united Europe plays an important role in maintaining the long -term peace, which also means the formation of a security system to protect Ukraine. In such conditions, the total exclusion of large European countries, here is not a united Europe, it is about the big European countries, from this process of peace is impossible. Of course, because the two want to give a very clear signal, not so much to the European countries, especially to China, related to the Arctic issues in the first place, both Trump and Putin will seek to establish the general staff to invite the other interested parties to take part in this process.

I think that here we must be careful when talking about the total exclusion of Europe in this process of peace for the simple reason that in the long term it is not possible. The US wants to greatly reduce their presence in Europe, this place must be occupied, so I do not think we are talking about a total exclusion, but rather about establishing the cadres without the direct participation of European countries, following the other actors, I am not referring only to Europe, but also to Turkey, to be consulted. You will see, you will discuss this summit including Central Asia and Northern Caucasus, and this involves both the Turkish problem and the Iranian problem.

Because we know this trading side of President Trump, Russia what can the United States of America? What are the Ars in Putin's sleeve?

It can offer them a lot, hence the choice of this place- Alaska- which is the geographical point where the two countries are at the highest proximity, think that between the American and the Russian territory at the nearest point there is a distance of 2 kilometers. The vision of Kirill Dimitriev promotes, the head of the Russian Fund for strategic investments is based on economic and political collaboration between the two countries, on the energy projects in Arctic. Then, both countries, but especially the US, have a number of disputes with their arctic neighbors, disputes where Russian support could very well use, and the availability of Russians to accept the participation of US companies in the Arctic area is very high. Here, Putin may seem even a reasonable man, promising Trump exactly the things he wants to hear.

Last but not least, the meeting of the two in this area of the Arctic is also a serious arrow sent to China's arctic claims and here I am convinced that America believes that it is one of the directions that can parasitize the Russian-Chinese alliance that created during this war. From this point of view, the Arctic is chosen having a rather loaded symbolism, because it is the direction in which the negotiation possibilities and the possibilities of understanding of Russia and the US are very high.