publication
2025-08-13 11:59
July sales of retail bonds of the Treasury turned out to be the highest this year. Poles bought above all floating percentage annual papers and three -year bonds with a fixed interest rate.
In July 2025, the Ministry of Finance sold retail tax bonds for over PLN 8.2 billion. It was the best monthly result this year and at the same time the highest result since August last year. Nevertheless, July sales of these papers turned out to be up to 30% lower than a year ago.
Why such a strong decrease, since the nominal result looked good? In recent years, there is some seasonality for the sale of retail papers from the Ministry of Finance. The thing is that it was in June and July 2022 that the so -called Morawiecki bonds. That is, the higher -interest retail to put pressure on the banking sector, so that it will finally raise the interest rate on deposits in response to higher interest rates in the NBP.
These were two months of record sales of tax bonds. And because mainly annual and two -year papers were purchased, now that year, that pik returns in the summer months, when the owners of these papers decide to exchange them for new emissions. This year, this was visible especially in June, when almost 30% of sales were converted by the bonds to the new series.
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– It is worth regularly investing savings on attractive terms – the record July sales level this year confirms high interest in our bonds. It is equally important that the money worked all the time. Our offer allows the continuity of multiplying already located funds, and the exchange of falling bonds for new ones, at a lower price, is an additional benefit for the saving. In July, by exchanging, customers bought every fifth bond, with a total value of over PLN 1.6 billion – wrote Jurand Drop, Undersecretary of State at the Ministry of Finance, commenting on the July results of the sale of retail bonds.
“Tactical” and short -term papers were bought
For several months, preferences have remained relatively constant. This year, annual paper (ROR) is the most popular, the interest rate of which is equal to the reference rate of the National Bank of Poland. In July, RORs accounted for nearly 40% of sales against 47% in June. It is worth adding that the interest rate on these bonds is variable and will probably decrease along with the expected rate reductions at the NBP.
3-year TOS bonds offering permanent interest rates in the entire period remained the vice-leader. In July it was 5.4%. So less than a few months ago, but still not bad against the background of the expected decrease in interest rates and forecasts assuming a decrease in CPI inflation below 3%. Permanent -percentage three -year -olds were the sales hit of last year, when they were responsible for over 40% of the sale of retail bonds of the Treasury.
However, papers indexed with the CPI indicator are much less popular than in previous years. “Anti-inflationary” 4-year-old COI in July was sold for PLN 675 million, which was only 8.2% of the total offer. 465.3 million was spent on 10-year-old Edo. In total, this gives just over PLN 1.14 billion and is barely 13.9% of sales. This shows that buyers of tax bonds are unlikely to expect high inflation and are apparently convinced that 5+% achieved on short -term papers (i.e. up to three years inclusive) will prove to be a higher result than CPI+2% margin.
The sale of “treasures” holds tight
From January to the end of July 2025, almost PLN 45.6 billion was spent on retail tax bonds. Going at this pace at the end of the year, we should see a result of PLN 78 billion. It would be a bit (by 5.4%) less than a year ago, but it would still be a very high historical result.
The previous record of sales of retail bonds of the Treasury fell last year and amounted to PLN 82.6 billion. A year earlier it was PLN 48.7 billion, in 2022 PLN 57.1 billion was desered. These results were several times higher than before the appearance of an inflationary wave from 2019-24. Earlier, the retail papers of the Ministry of Finance constituted a small niche, and sales did not exceed low several billion zlotys.
In the August offer of the Ministry of Finance, the interest rate on bonds is 25 PB. lower than in July. This is the result of the July Decision of the Monetary Policy Council to reduce interest rates at the NBP. Further cuts of the reference foot are expected in September and November. Economists also count on further loosening of the monetary policy in 2026. This will mean a lower interest rate on retail tax bonds and generally worse times for saving people, who for the previous 1.5 years could benefit from real positive interest rates in Poland (i.e. situations where the nominal NBP reference rate exceeded the CPI inflation rate for the previous 12 months).
