Higher oil extraction will not reduce the prices of raw material. Drivers will pay more for diesel in autumn

August is the third in a row, when eight OPEC+ countries increase oil supply on the global market; There will be another increase in September. OPEC countries, especially Saudi Arabia, want to regain market shares lost as a result of reducing mining since 2022, mainly for American producers. However, you should not expect a decrease in oil prices, as the demand should be high, and the availability of oil from Russia is in question. This does not change the fact that in autumn fuel prices at stations usually rise, and in the most raises will apply to diesel.

– Considering the complexity of all factors that are very uncertain, because they are more determined by geopolitics than foundations, it is difficult to predict in which direction oil prices will follow – says Newseria Information Agency Urszula Cieślak, director of the Forecast and Analysis Department, Reflex. – Remember that OPEC countries+ successively increase oil extraction, on September another increase in production and greater oil supplies is announced, should guarantee us maintenance, so that it will satisfy the demand for oil.

OPEC+countries, or Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria and Oman, decided at the beginning of August that from September they will increase oil supply to the global market by 547 thousand. barrels a day. It will be the fourth month of increasing the supply of raw material after three years of limits that manufacturers imposed on themselves to stop the drop in oil prices. In June and July, the extraction of “black gold” by the cartel and its allies increased by 411,000. Baryłek a day, in August – by 547 thousand “Withdrawal of additional voluntary production corrections can be suspended or withdrawn depending on the changing market conditions. This flexibility will continue to support the stability of the oil market,” the OPEC message was written after the last meeting.

The director of the Forecasts and Analysis Department reminds that the end of the production reduction cycle for eight manufacturers associated in OPEC+ from a height of 2.2 million barrels does not mean that the main countries producing oil, associated in OPEC organization, will restore their original limits, because they continue to produce over 3.5 million barrels less than in 2022.

– OPEC+ decision to re -increase crude oil production from September will not have a major translation into the prices of raw material, greater supplies of raw material will probably be implemented in the period when on the other hand we can have sanctions imposed on countries that buy oil from Russia, therefore for the global oil market, the decision, which we learned on August 3, may not be translated – Cieślak. – The factor that could negatively affect the prices of raw material is the return of anxiety in the Middle East and the questions to what extent is the real threat of suspension of oil flow through the Strait of the ORMUZ.

In mid -2022, the price of the WTI oil barrel (Texan) cost over $ 120. for a barrel. Then, however, she began to quickly decrease due to fears of global economic slowdown. They made themselves felt, among others The effects of the Chinese policy “Zero Covid”, which Beijing abandoned only at the turn of 2022 and 2023. At that time, however, the price of raw material barrel was over a third lower than a few months earlier. That is why in October 2022 OPEC decided to reduce mining.

Oil prices in recent years consist of many factors, apart from supply and dollar, these are mainly geopolitical tensions, and previously a pandemic. For example, oil increased in June 2025, when as a result of the twelve -day war between Iraq and Israel, the tension in the Middle East increased, Israel bombarded Iraqi oil installations, and the latter threatened to block the Stragle of the Ormus. The price of the barrel jumped by over $ 10. Within a dozen or so days to around $ 75 It also increased slightly in the second half of July, when Donald Trump threatened the EU and Mexico 30 %. duties.

– The last information that came from the United States that President Trump threatens the lands buying oil with 100 %. duties, do not have to mean large turmoil on the market. First of all, such a decision must come into force – says the director of the forecasts and analyzes department, Reflex. – It seems to me that until such a decision, nothing is great and the countries will not give up the purchases of Russian oil, although we remember that the state -owned Indian refineries have already limited the purchases of Russian oil, while private enterprises that bought Russian oil in India are still doing so.

The American president introduced an additional 25 % The duty for the import of goods from India, which means that some Indian goods would be covered with connecting tariffs of 50 percent. The reason was that India was buying Russian oil. American duties would seriously hit India export sectors as textiles, precious stones and jewelry. Customs would come into force on August 27.

On the other hand, Russia has decided to ban gasoline exports two months, but it should not have a major impact on fuel prices on the Polish market, because Poland currently satisfies internal needs through domestic deliveries, and the two-month period is so short that the ban does not shake the demand and interview situation in the world. This does not mean that fuel prices will not increase in autumn seasonally.

– In autumn, even if the prices of raw material remain relatively stable, we will observe greater corrections of diesel oil prices up than in the case of gasoline. We will not avoid this seasonality confidently and this year, although this summer we also note – indicates Urszula Cieślak.

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