Isarescu announces that we are not in recession and claim that we can avoid it. Inflation will be 9.7% in September
Avoiding the recession I think is possible by even more accelerated absorption of European money, which also means more investments financed from European money, said the BNR governor, Mugur Isarescu on Tuesday, stating that inflation will be 9.7% in September.
Mugur Isarescu reviewed the inflation forecast. Photos photo photos
“Avoiding recession I think it is possible by Even more accelerated absorption of European money, which also means more investments financed from European money“Said the head of the central bank.
Isarescu states that he does not believe that this year the NBR will change the key interest.
“We hope we don't do that. It would be good to have a degree of social cohesion that does not oblige us to take such measures. Because these tax decisions were painful“He said.
As for inflation, Isarescu said he reviewed the forecast for this year, from 4.6%to 8.8%.
“A premiere after many years, 4-5, I entered a situation of deficit of aggregate application, with expectations of deepening of this deficit. From the point of view of the global demand, the inflationary pressures are decreasing. (…) We have a return of investments, in the first quarter of 2025, after the steep restriction from the end of the previous year or as a premise to accelerate the absorption of European funds. And, if we have opened this topic, I think it is essential, if we want to avoid the recession, an acceleration, an increase in the absorption of European funds. On the basis of them, we would also have economic growth and lack of inflationary pressures and proper financing from the point of view of the balance of payments”, Said Mugur Isarescu.
The deficit of the current account contained to deepen, including as a result of the damage of the secondary income balance. And the exchange rate was used in the second quarter for “a relative anchor“For economic, financial stability, market stability.
“Analysts believe that we will be able to bring inflation into the target over a year and especially over two years“He added.
However, the estimate for December 2026 was revised down, from 3.4% to 3%.
“In September, the peak will probably be, instead of 9%, it will probably be 9.6-9.7%, followed by a gradual absorption of these shocks and, in our forecast, at the end of next year, inflation will not only enter the target range, but will be even lower than the forecast inflation in the previous inflation. With other words, pay attention to figures. At the end of the year, 8.8%. It will probably exceed 9%. And 3% we keep the forecast of December 2026, even under the data from the previous forecast. Why? Because fiscal policy will do its duty, this time. It reduces the demand, especially the demand for consumption. Consequently, over time, the resorption of inflationary pressures will be strong. 12 months lasts on consumption price index the size of shocks on the side of the offer”, Said the BNR governor.
According to him, in the second quarter, especially extreme weather phenomena have increased prices for vegetables and fruits. And the labor force represented one of the pressure factors.
