How will they affect the state budget? CENEA expert analysis


– Only the introduction of a relief in the form of zero PIT for families with two and more children to the threshold of 140 thousand. PLN, as announced by President Nawrocki, as well as expanding the possibility of using pro -family reliefs by entrepreneurs settling with other methods than according to the scale, it costs almost PLN 16 billion per year. However, the president also proposes to raise the threshold to 140 thousand. PLN for all accounts by scale, which would further raise the costs of this package by another PLN 3 billion a year – Michał Myck told PAP from Cena.
The economist pointed out that wealthy taxpayers would benefit from such changes in personal income tax.
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– According to our estimates, after changes in the case of families in which both parents earn 20,000 PLN per month, benefits would be over PLN 5,200 per month – it is over six times more compared to support in 800+. In turn, the benefits of a family with two and three children, in which both parents earn a minimum wage would be just over PLN 300 per month. These disproportions are therefore enormous – said Michał Myck.
He estimated that today the Polish family support system is “flat”. He explained that the point is that both the least affluent families and the richest ones receive very similar support amounts, depending mainly on the number of children and their age.
– This is unique in comparison with many other EU countries, where higher funds are directed to families with lower income. Changes in PIT, according to President Nawrocki, would make the benefits of the most affluent families to be much greater than those that would receive the least wealthy – the expert pointed out.
Karol Nawrocki promises a higher tax -free amount
President Nawrocki also announced that he would submit a bill increasing the tax -free amount from 30 to 60 thousand. PLN, as promised by the Civic Coalition in its election program.
– The cost of raising the free amount to 60,000 PLN is approx. PLN 45-55 billion. Admittedly, the total cost of the presidential package and a higher free amount would be less than the sum of the costs of introducing these solutions separately, but such a total package is probably about PLN 70 billion a year. To this should be added several dozen billion zlotys from the current VAT rate proposed by the president from 23 to 22 percent, which probably brings us closer to a total amount of about PLN 100 billion a year – said economist Cena.
Lower main VAT rate
President Nawrocki in his program also announced a reduction in the main VAT rate. Its raising to 23 of 22 percent. It took place in 2011 and was to be temporary, but subsequent governments delayed returning to a lower rate. From 2024, there is a rule that the 23 % rate It applies if defense expenses exceed 3 percent. GDP.
Read also: Shocking calculations. The plans of Karol Nawrocki can reduce the budget by over PLN 100 billion
– I am very surprised by the lack of consistency in the president's statements in relation to the general economic package – on the one hand he would like ambitious investment and defense programs, for which tens of billions of zlotys should be allocated to, and on the other, the government mobilizes to changes in taxes, which by ten billion PLN per year reduce the revenues of the state budget. You can't do both – believes Michał Myck.
Reliefs and investments. The promises of Karol Nawrocki
In an interview with PAP, the expert pointed out that if we want to have an ambitious state that invests in defense, infrastructure, new technologies, and which offers good public services, one cannot simultaneously reduce budget revenues on such a scale.
– Especially if the budget deficit and public debt are at the same level as it is today – said Michał Myck.
Read also: What about changes in Karol Nawrocki's taxes? We have the position of the Ministry of Finance
– In addition, the president's tax proposals would bring the most important benefits to the richest families, and such a depletion of the state's income would have to affect, if not at the amount of state investments, then on the quality of public services for everyone – he said.




