The PMI index for Polish industry, calculated by S&P Global, in July 2025 amounted to 45.9 points, i.e. increased from 44.8 points at the end of the previous month – It results from the final data published on Friday morning. This is the result in accordance with the forecasts, although it may remain unsatisfied, because in June there was a burst and later there were hopes for a more pronounced reflection.
According to S&P Global, in July, the Polish manufacturing sector has clearly shrunk again. The pace of decrease in new orders and production, although they dismissed compared to June, were still fast. Companies again reduced employment, purchasing activity and investments. Forecasts for the next 12 months, although they improved, were still relatively weak
The result of 50 points is an important barrier that separates the expansion (readings above this border) from the recession (below) in the sector. It is important not only whether it is below this border level, but an important hint is also whether there is a change: the growing PMI indicator, even if it is below 50 points, suggests improvement in the sector.
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S&P Global
The increase in the PMI index was reflected in all five subindexes, although four of them still had a negative impact on it (the delivery time was slightly positive). New orders received by Polish producers fell in July the fourth month in a row. International markets still constituted the main factor inhibiting general demand, and Germany was often mentioned as a source of weakness. New export orders have dropped to the greatest extent since August 2023.
Further rapid decline in the number of new orders again led to a decrease in production in July. Production has fallen for the third month in a row, and the pace of the estate remained high, although it softened. In July, employment in the Polish industry fell for the fifth time in 2025, although at a slower pace than in May and June. At the same time, producers limited the purchases of production means at the fastest pace since October 2023. The supplies of materials decreased the fourth month in a row. Despite the decrease in demand for raw materials, delivery dates from suppliers have extended the most for ten months.
At the beginning of the second half of the year, production forecasts in the coming 12 months improved slightly After they fell into one of the lowest levels in June since the pandemic. Optimism was associated with new markets, investments and hopes to improve the supply of raw materials. The index of future production increased sharply within a month: Almost a third of companies (30 percent) expect production increase, compared to 24 percent. in June. Despite this, optimism was much weaker than the trend observed since 2012 (when the prognostic indicator was added to the study). Asia competition was mentioned as a threat to sales next to American duties.
The worst moment could have passed
Trevor Balchin, economic director at S&P Global Market Intelligence, in the commentary that in July Polish producers have recorded further explicit deterioration of operational conditions and the main PMI indicator remained far below the neutral thresholddespite a slight revival from June. In addition, the index reading of 45.9 points is far below the value recorded for the euro area, where it increased in July to the highest level for three years, registering 49.8 points.
“The number of new orders dropped in July the fourth month in a row (with only one survey in June 2024. The rate of decline was faster), which led to a further violent decline in production. In addition, total sales were influenced by the weakness of export, which fell to the greatest extent for almost two years. The July data suggest at least that the worst moment of the current economic slowdown could have passedbecause the decreases in production, the number of new orders and employment weakened, and the forecasts for the next 12 months have improved, “Balchin said.
