Who will the new agreement with the USA hit? Prof. Tomkiewicz: In Poland, medium businesses will feel this

Prof. Jacek Tomkiewicz from the Leon Koźmiński Academy assessed in an interview with PAP that in Poland the effects of an EU trade agreement with the USA will be felt primarily by medium businesses, which are subcontractors, e.g. for the German automotive industry. But “ordinary Kowalski” has nothing to worry about – added the economist.

US President Donald Trump and chairwoman of the EC Ursula von der Leyen announced on Sunday about the achievement of a commercial agreement between the United States and the European Union. The contract imposes 15 percent duty for most European goods sent to the USA; The EU is also to buy weapons and energy from the United States.

According to prof. Jacek Tomkiewicz, dean of the College of Finance and Economics at the Leon Koźmiński Academy, this agreement is good news, both for American consumers and European producers. – The conclusion of this agreement is much more favorable than what President Donald Trump announced earlier. Although, of course, all this confusion, nervousness and variability in the markets were unnecessary, but it is good that it finally managed to communicate – he assessed.

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In July, the American president published on the Truth Social List platform to the boss of the EC announcing from 1 August “mutual customs” to 30 percent. He also added that in the case of EU retorts, the tariffs may be even more increased.

On Sunday, von der Leyen announced that, according to the new contract, 15 % The customs rate will cover the overwhelming part of EU exports to the United States, including Car, semiconductor and pharmaceutical industry. According to the Chairwoman of the EC, both sides will endure duties on aircraft, some chemicals, generic drugs and agricultural products.

As reminded by prof. Tomkiewicz, only about 3 percent Polish exports go directly to the American market. However, the situation with indirect exports looks worse, especially in the case of Germany, which is one of the most important commercial partners of Poland.

– the effects of this contract may feel Medium businesses, which, for example, are subcontractors for the German automotive industry. Poland exports a lot of car parts, for example and is a subcontractor for Mercedes or BMW, whose products then flow to the United States. And Germany is not only a very important trade partner for us, but they are also one of the largest exporters to the USA – explained the economist.

The Federal Union of German Industry (BDI), which brings together several dozen German industrial associations, reported in a Monday communication that the EU-US trade agreement will have “significant negative repercussions for German industry, which is largely focused on export.”

In turn, the German “Spiegel” announced that according to experts, the German economy will lose from 0.1 to 0.2 percent. GDP. “This is not a disaster, but still an additional factor inhibiting the frail growth in the largest industrial country in Europe,” said Michael Sauga on the weekly portal.

The head of the European Commission was also asked on Sunday at a meeting with journalists if she was sure that the US would not raise duties on pharmaceuticals. She emphasized that “we are sure that it will be 15 percent.” “However, another issue is what decision the United States will make globally,” added von der Leyen.

Trump gave another information on Sunday evening, who said that there was no way that the agreement between the EU and the US was about pharmaceuticals.

According to EU sources, the US does not impose duties on pharmaceutical products, but they can be introduced in the future when the Trump administration ends its investigation in accordance with the section 232 of the American Trade Act of 1962. It applies to pharmaceutical products, semiconductors, wood, critical raw materials, shipbuilding industry and other sectors.

– We do not know yet and I understand that Trump's administration may not yet know how the investigation into pharmaceutical products will end. But for us it is clear that regardless of its result, they will not be covered by a rate higher than 15 percent. for the EU – an EU official said on Monday.

Prof. Tomkiewicz, asked if the new trade agreement, in the form announced by von der Leyen, would significantly affect the prices of medicines in Poland, he denied. He added that “the pharmaceutical market is very specific.”

– The pharmaceutical market in Poland is largely regulated in such a way that the National Health Fund negotiates with pharmaceutical companies to determine the prices of reimbursed drugs. This is not such a pure free market in which we can talk about a simple translation into medicines in pharmacies. However, the market of pharmaceuticals that we buy every day, e.g. painkillers, is very competitive. So I do not expect that aspirin or proverbial paracetamol, in connection with the target, explained.

Trump also announced that as part of the EU agreement, she committed significant purchases of American military equipment and energy; The latter for $ 750 billion. The Spanish daily “El Mundo” noted that as a result of the US agreement “they will eventually replace Russia as an EU energy supplier”, and Spain “will increase its dependence on American gas”, giving up nuclear energy.

Prof. Tomkiewicz estimated that it has already happened in Poland. – After all, we have completely stopped buying from Russia and oil and gas. To a large extent we bring LNG, or liquefied natural gas from the United States – he explained. – Also from a Polish perspective it has already happened.

Trump also announced that steel and EU aluminum will remain covered by the current 50 % rate. Von der Leyen, however, donated on Sunday, and the EU sources confirmed – that quotas would be designated for both raw materials, and therefore the amount that will be able to enter the USA not covered by high duties.

According to prof. Tomkiewicz's proposal of quotas can be good because we are dealing with overproduction of steel in the world. – There is a chance that this will work and the contingent system will optimize production so that there is no such devastating competition in the world. As usual, time will tell – he assessed.

The economist also expects that the contract that has just been developed will apply for a longer period of time, despite the unstable reputation in the president's decisions that Donald Trump has developed.

– In my opinion, the current duties will stay for some time, because although Trump can change their mind very quickly, on the other hand – he quickly abandons a given topic and deals with something else. There is quite a chance that he will consider this matter “settled” and redirect his attention elsewhere – he explained.

When asked if the average Pole would significantly feel the consequences of the new contract, the economist assessed that “ordinary Kowalski” is unlikely to worry.

“Even if ordinary Kowalski is planning to buy Harley Davidson, he is rather not going down,” said the economist.

AGG/ BST/ LM/

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