On Sunday, new trade rules were informed about the EU and the USA. During the press conference, the chairwoman of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen explained that the 15 % customs rate would cover most EU exports to the United States-including cars. At the same time, duties were lifted to products such as aircraft, generic drugs, agricultural products and some chemicals. President Donald Trump announced that the EU undertook to carry out purchases of American military equipment and energy, including energy raw materials worth $ 750 billion. He also announced EU investments worth $ 600 billion. in the American economy.
Read also: So much Poland will lose on Trump's customs. Donald Tusk gave numbers
New GDP growth forecasts
Despite the positive acceptance of the agreement, not all issues were resolved. Steel and aluminum will still be charged with a tariff at 50 %, which raises questions about the future of these sectors.
Goldman Sachs analysts updated the euro zone GDP growth forecasts, reducing the harmful effects of commercial voltages to the economy to -0.4 percent. By the end of 2026, in view of the earlier projection -0.6 percent In their opinion, economic growth in 2025 will amount to 1.1 percent, and in 2026 1.2 percent. Experts argue that the milder impact of commercial tensions results from a lower than expected increase in effective customs rates for European exports to the US, limiting political uncertainty and better than forecasts of economic results of the euro area.
– Significant changes in financial conditions, immediate imposition of duties on pharmaceuticals and global deterioration of growth forecasts remain the main threats to the scale of the impact of trade on the GDP of Europe estimated by us – the analysts pointed out. They also emphasized that their latest calculations suggest that the agreement may have a slightly negative impact on inflation in 2026, while in the forecasts of 2027 the situation should remain stable.
Ebi will keep interest rates?
According to Goldman Sachs, the contract increases the likelihood that the European Central Bank will decide to maintain interest rates at the current level during the September meeting. There is no lack that this monetary stabilization can act as a kind of buffer in the face of possible turbulence.
However, US trading partners, such as Mexico or Canada, are still facing the challenges arising from Washington's customs policy. These countries are currently responsible for 56 percent. global imports to the USA. Mexico, Canada and South Korea, which supply the United States in almost 38 percent. imported goods, have received information about higher customs rates in recent weeks, as did India, Switzerland and Taiwan. It is forecasted that for most countries, general customs rates will remain at 15 percent.
In turn, in the scope of energy imports, Trump said that the agreement assumes a significant increase in supplies to the European Union, which currently amount to around $ 80 billion. annually. Most of this increased exchange is to apply to liquefied natural gas (LNG), which analysts recognize as an important step in commercial relations between these two entities.
