Thailand and Cambodia tighten the conflict. The expert explains. “They don't want to” lose their face “
The Minister of Health of Thailand, Somsak Thepsuthin, announced on Thursday that 12 people were killed in the artillery fire of Cambodian forces, including 11 civilians and one soldier – said the Reuters agency. The minister added that 24 civilians and seven soldiers were injured.
Damian Wnukowski, coordinator of the Asia and Pacific program in the Scriptures, explains that The source of the Thai-Cambodian conflict, which has been undergoing for over a century, were the agreements concluded at the beginning of the 20th century. Even between Siam (the former name of Thailand), then the only country in Southeast Asia, which was not colonized but colonial France. As the expert points out, At that time, border lines were designated, which in later years were unsuccessful by Thailand.
– In many places this borderline was difficult to designate, in addition, there are several culturally important places in the border areas for both countries, historic temples – the best known of them is on the UNESCO list today – describes Wnukowski. – years after signing this agreement Thailand wanted to revise how the border runs, but Cambodia, as an independent state, defended its rights to these areas.
The expert indicates that in 1962 the International Court of Justice issued a judgment in favor of Cambodia, considering that Thailand's claims were unfounded. Despite this, Thailand does not recognize the verdict in this matter. There are also discrepancies regarding the selection of the border itself. In 2013, the International Court of Justice confirmed its previous decision by supporting the position of Cambodia.
Escalation of the conflict between Thailand and Cambodia
The ongoing escalation of the conflict began in May, when the Cambodian soldier died in the clash with Thai forces. Then Thailand limited the border crossings, withdrew its ambassador from Cambodia and turned to the head of the Cambodian diplomatic mission in Bangkok to leave the state in protest against the detonation of the land mina, which wounded five Thai soldiers.
As the analyst of the Scriptures emphasizes, in the case of current clashes there is no clear answer to the question about who first opened the fire. Although in the last two months, since the death of a Cambodian soldier in May, there have been many calls for de -escalation and assembly of weapons, The relations between Cambodia and Thailand became more and more tense, and soldiers were collected on the border.
– Thailand is now accusing Cambodia of mingling a border belt. Cambodia claims that the faces that hurt Thai soldiers last week were old. We do not know who is right, but it was the moment when there was a really large escalation of tensions – explains the expert.
On Thursday morning, Cambodia decided to reduce the rank of diplomatic relations with Thailand to the lowest level. The authorities in Phnom Penh asked the neighboring state ambassador to leave the country and dismissed the staff of their embassy in Bangkok.
The Rear Admiral of the Thailand of Thailand Surasant Kongsiri, he gave the Reuters agency on Thursday that to fight on the border of the Surin Province in Thailand and Uddar Meanchey in Cambodia, at least six locations took place. The Cambodian army opened a fire towards Thai soldiers, which forced them to retaliate. Thailand closed all border crossings with Cambodia, which in turn accused Thailand of unfriendly aggression.
The escalation of the conflict between Thailand and Cambodia. The expert indicates what to do next
In relation to subsequent activities of the army of both countries on the border, Wnukowski estimates that These clashes are unlikely to transform into a full -scale war. He explains that it can be concluded both on the basis of previous conflicts, in which the situation quickly escalated, but often calmed down relatively quickly, and in the fact that broadly extensive armed actions are not in the interest of any of the countries.
According to the analyst, the duration of the conflict depends largely on the internal situation in both countries.
– The situation in Thailand is difficult. The Prime Minister, Paetongtarn Shinawatra, is currently suspended by the Constitutional Court, because in a telephone conversation, which she conducted with Hun Sen, the father of the current head of the Cambodia government, which leaked to the media, including She pointed to the discrepancies between the Thai government and the army, which was to weaken the position of Thailand. In turn, the Cambodian prime minister, Hun Model, has been ruling only since 2023 and he still lacks authority that his father had even. Therefore, both countries want to show themselves as strong, resisting the other side, having strong leaders – explains Wnukowski. “No government wants to” lose face “, which is very important in Asian culture,” he added.
A tense situation between Thailand and Cambodia. “Tourists should not go to border areas”
When asked if Poles staying in Thailand on vacation should consider evacuation, the analyst assessed that It is enough if they do not go to the areas where military operations are underway.
– Civilians, including tourists, should not go close to border areas, in particular to the province of Thailand, in which civilians and soldiers have already died. You have to listen to messages of the authorities, both Thai and Cambodian – he says. He adds, For now, there were no calls to evacuate by representatives of other countries.
Wnukowski also refers to the impact of the conflict on tourism in this region of Asia for decades. In the opinion of the analyst, if the clashes are limited to border areas, this should not affect the tourism level in any of these countries. As he emphasizes, the largest escalation from 2011 recently has not significantly influenced the number of tourists.
– Thailand is one of the main tourist centers of the world. I doubt that what is happening today has changed this state. Unless internal destabilization throughout the country occurs, but I do not anticipate it at the moment – he assesses.
The Embassy of the Republic of Poland in Bangkok reported on Thursday morning that Thai-Kambodian land border crossings remain closed to tourist traffic. She called on Polish citizens to follow the communications of local authorities and follow the recommendations of the services.
In turn, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of China warned about the clashes and appealed to the citizens of the PRC so that they would not go to areas covered by fights. He also announced that he would take actions for de -escalation.
