The effects of Iran's revolt against the Agency for Atomic Energy: “It is also dangerous to Europe. They will dedicate themselves to the production of nuclear weapons”

The decision of Iran to suspend cooperation with the International Atomic Energy Agency is a signal that shows that the country will resume the activity of producing nuclear weapons, without dissimulating this process, says Andrei Schwartz.

Nuclear reactor from Iran. Photo: EPA EFE

Iran interrupted, from July 3, the cooperation with the International Agency for Atomic Energy (AIEA) with the stated purpose of suspending inspections and transparency against international nuclear supervision, as a reaction to its nuclear sites.

On June 25, 2025, the Iranian Parliament voted, with a clear majority, the suspension of cooperation with AIEA, invoking security reasons for nuclear facilities. President Masoud Pezeshkian signs, on July 3, the law of suspension, consolidated by the Parliament, the Guardian Council and the Supreme National Security Council.

The suspension was officially motivated as a reaction to the blows launched by Israel (June 13) and the United States (June 21-22) on the Iranian nuclear and military infrastructure. Iran claims that it will resume cooperation until the safety of sites and nuclear staff will not be provided. Iranian officials accuse that he had become biased – of “favoring” Israel and the US – and that he would have compromised the integrity of the institution.

Inspectors Aiea were withdrawn from Iran for safety reasons, although continuous satellite monitoring.

Tehran states that it remains part of the Treaty of Nuclear Non -Proliferation (NPT) and cooperates under strict conditions, controlled by the Supreme Security Council.

West – especially the US and European countries – has harshly condemned the decision, considering the suspension of “unacceptable” cooperation and risking the reopening of the “Snapback” procedure for the re -implementation of sanctions.

The air blows made by the United States on Iranian nuclear sites, at the order of President Donald Trump would have had an important impact on the Iran's nuclear program. The information was confirmed on Wednesday by Pentagon, which cites the assessments of American intelligence services.

“I delayed their schedule with one to two years At least that's the evaluation of the Defense Department Information Services“Said Pentagon spokesman Sean Parnell, according to The Guardian. He added:” We think it is probably closer to two years. “

American attacks took place about ten days ago and targeted nuclear installations from Fordo, Natanz and Isspahan. These have been launched in support of the Israel's offensive, but their complete efficiency remains, for now, uncertain.

On the other hand, the head of the International Agency for Atomic Energy, Rafael Mariano Grossi, claimed that Iran could start to produce “in a few months”, the damage caused by American attacks is not so decisive.

What are the effects of these evolutions of the Middle East conflict and what is the Strategy of Israel on the nuclear threat of Iran has explained, for “Adevărul”, the security analyst Andrei Schwartz.

“They will now dedicate themselves to the activities of the production of nuclear weapons.”

The truth: Iran could start again to produce enriched uranium “in a few months,” said the head of the International Agency for Atomic Energy (AIEA), Rafael Mariano Grossi, because the damages caused by American and Israeli attacks on Iranian nuclear installations were “severe”, but not “total”. What do you think about this evaluation? If it were true, what would this mean?

Andrei Schwartz: It is very possible that the Israeli and additional – American blows have not led to the total destruction of the nuclear arming program of the Tehran regime. But the following aspect must be well-understood: even if the destruction was quasi-compliant, a regime that has this morbid ambition can rebuild that program, even from scratch! So, the problem is that the stated purpose of the regime is the destruction of Israel, the means are easy to purchase/built, even if it is a nuclear program, plus that of the stock of several thousand ballistic missiles plus thousands of killers (from those that cause tens of thousands of victims and in the neighboring country).

What does Iran mean has broken the connection with the International Atomic Energy Agency?

Sincere? Theoretically it means that they will now dedicate themselves, declared to the activities of producing nuclear weapons and that they want to hide the stage of these developments. For example, one of the last places hit during the “12 -day war” was a unit for the process of metallizing the rich uranium (in Sanjarian, near Tehran, but also another from Isfahan – much further south). However, there are many locations that have never been discovered by international inspectors, and others where Iran did not allow them access. So, practically this time – I would say that it is not a big difference from the moment before June 13, because Aiea was used by Iran to deceive the US and Europe in terms of its true intentions and evolutions in the development of nuclear capacity.

What chances is there a new nuclear agreement with Iran?

It depends on President Trump and his team. If they want to go with your eyes to a new agreement, as Barack Obama wanted, then you can sign on any paper. The problem remains: will Iran continue to want to destroy Israel, Saudi Arabia and the rest of Sunnite Muslim countries, but also Europe and the US? Will they continue to deceive the West, receive the lifting of sanctions again, while producing – in secret – the elements necessary for nuclear weapons? Will they continue to use the money received after raising the sanctions for the ballistic program and for the drones, for the arming of proxy groups of terrorism: Hezbollah, Hamas, Palestinian Islamic Jihad, Houthi, Shiite groups in Iraq? If so – any agreement would be just a support for the criminal plans of the Tehran regime.

“I do not think they have what to change to this genocide program, if the terrorist regime does not fall.”

Do you see now an Iran's strategy on conflict with Israel? Do I prepare something?

They prepared 3 elements, for 20-30 and for more years-everything to destroy Israel: the terrorist groups we were talking about earlier; The program of arming with ballistic missiles (thousands of missiles, hundreds of launchers), about 50% were destroyed in these 12 days of open war; The nuclear program. I do not think they have what to change to this genocide program, if the terrorist regime does not fall.

How much do you think the armistice between Israel and Iran will resist? What is the situation now, how much is respected?

Donald Trump has forced Israel to stop the Operation in Iran on June 24. Iran has drawn rockets on Israeli cities, killing families from Beer-Sheva (south), and the Riposta of Israel was stopped by the order given by the US president.

The Terrorist group Hamas also fired missiles from Gaza and Houthi terrorists have drawn a ballistic missile from Yemen – to Israel, these days.

How do you see the internal evolution of the situation in Iran?

It is hard to believe that a revolution of democratic aspirations will be achieved in Iran. The people are too fragmented (on ethnic, religious lines, attachment to the regime, etc.). Unfortunately, I do not think the Pahlavi solution is still inspiring someone inside the country. More in the diaspora … but there are many fanatics attached to the fundamentalist regime and Islam.

What is Israel's strategy vis-à-vis the relationship with Iran?

Israel, the only Jewish state in the world – seriously takes the promise that it will never allow the Holocaust or Muslim crimes to be repeated (about 1 million Jews were expelled from Muslim countries in the 20th century, after many thousands were massacred in pogroms to Iraq to Morocco). Whether we are talking about Iran or we are talking about other potential dangers (Erdogan of Turkey agitates spirits over the past 20 years, for example, and directly threatens Israel, including by taking power in the neighboring Syria), Israel will act to prevent any threat to its citizens.

“Iran is dangerous for Europe too.”

Is Iran dangerous for Europe?

Yes. In several ways. Iran has a history of terrorist attacks in Europe (Burgas/Bulgaria, Cyprus, Greece, etc.) or plots against the Iranian dissidents who had taken refuge in the European territory. The Foxtrot Network group in Sweden is only the latest mediated case.

Is there a connection between the situation in Iran and what is happening in Gaza?

Without the support of Iran, the Terrorists Hamas and those of the Palestinian Islamic Jihad would not have had the same resources to commit atrocities in the Pogrom on October 7, 2023.

On June 21, at Qom, in Iran, Israel killed Mohammad Saeed Izadi – one of the main pawns of the regime in financing and arming the two terrorist groups. Documents regarding his activity had been found in Gaza, in the tunnel under the European Hospital – where Hamas Mohammed Sinwar was killed