Did the US really destroy the Iran program? Trump shot himself at the foot
At first glance, it looks like disaster for the Trump administration. “The alleged” expertise “was classified as” top secret “, but it was still handed over to CNN by an anonymous, low -ranking loser from intelligence services” – wrote the spokeswoman for the White House Karoline Leavitt on X. This is “a clear attempt to discredit President Trump”.
The reason for the anger of Leavitt: A report of intelligence services, which is cited by the CNN portal, states that Some of the most important objects of the Iranian nuclear program have not been completely destroyed During the American raid at night from Saturday to Sunday.
According to the report of the Intelligence Agency of the Department of Defense, the country is only a few months closer to the construction of the bomb than before. This statement is catastrophic for the US government primarily in the media. And this is only because the president and his surroundings, as it often happens, fooling around: in his statement after the attack, Trump said that the nuclear program stayed “completely and completely destroyed”.
CNN, on the other hand, quotes an official familiar with a report, which estimates that at the plants in Natanz and Fordo Wirówka to enrich uranium, which make the highly radioactive mineral suitable for the production of atomic bombs, are “Mostly intact”. It would be significant because the number and type of intact corłbacks determine how quickly Iran will be able to produce atomic bombs if the management of the country issues such an order.
Uncertainty after an American attack
However, according to American special services, before the attack from warehouses in Ford and Isfahanie About 400 kg of enriched uranium has already been transported. In response to the CNN inquiry, the White House declared that the report is contrary to the government's assessment. Leavitt even wrote that the document is “simply false”.
In fact, there are reasons not to treat the report cited by CNN as a final summary of attacks – not only in the document itself. Unlike CNN, “Washington Post”, whose journalists apparently also know the content of the document, mentions the annotation of “low confidence”, which in this context means “Low credibility”.
Apparently, even the authors of the document are not very sure of their assessment. According to the information of Israeli intelligence services, the damage caused to the Iranian nuclear program is so large that they have undo it not for a few months, but about “several years”.
In circulating opinions on the durability of the effects of attacks on Natanz, Ford and Isfahan, they probably play a role political considerations. Like all government, Trump's administration also eagerly celebrates her own actions as a success, and its critics have a natural interest in undermining these successes. As you know, Israel has long been on such an attack using the US military advantage, which is why it is not surprising that it is reluctant to undermine the sense of bombing.
Iranian ability to build a bomb
However, there are also independent assessments of the effects of the attack. David Albright, a physicist and director of the Institute of International Science and Security in Washington, is considered a leading independent researcher of the Iranian nuclear program. He sometimes raises controversy in both Trump's and Israel administration.
Thanks to his knowledge, the former inspector of the International Atomic Energy Agency has access to materials that are not publicly available. “It is at least misleading to bring what happened [podczas amerykańskich bombardowań w Iranie]to complete failure, “says Albright on X. Ultimately, you cannot bring the ability to build atomic bombs only to the centrifuges used in three locations.
Albright reminds you that The production of nuclear weapons is a complicated processrequiring many different installations and skills. Now Iran has also been destroyed to produce centrifuge, as well as its uranium processing plants, uranium metal production and other elements of the military nuclear program. “The reconstruction of these abilities, and even the production of nuclear weapons, will require significant time, investment and energy,” he notes. The attack was therefore “Warta West”.
Experts warned earlier that the air attacks would not completely destroy the Iranian nuclear program, but only significantly will delay. However, Trump caused a different impression with his statements. This is an image problem that he created himself.
However, the attack was not worthless. According to the assessments of experts and intelligence services, Iran was previously only six to 12 months from obtaining the ability to build atomic bombs.
Donald Trump speaks after an American attack on Iran, Washington, June 22, 2025.
Hope for negotiations
As for only the production of uranium suitable for military purposes, according to Albright calculations before the attack, the country could prepare a sufficient material within a month to produce 11 bombs. The delay of several months is therefore important.
On the other hand, the attack is important, for example, for negotiations. Albright apparently considers them Necessary complement to military activities. “This is a continuous process in which you need to constantly destroy equipment or conclude agreements with Iran, in which he gives up possession [broni]” – writes the researcher.
In this context, the Iranian parliament 'Wednesday's decision should probably be understood. Most voted for suspension of cooperation with Maea. Such votes, especially in foreign policy, are often only a signal character, because in order to enter into force, they must be approved by the body of the guards of the Islamic Revolution, which includes clergy and the meeting of experts [organ, którego zadaniem jest wybór, kontrola i odwoływanie najwyższego przywódcy].
Apparently, Tehran hopes to resume negotiations on his nuclear program and wants to raise the stake as a result of attacks. If Iran indeed and permanently ceased to cooperate with Maea, and thus actually withdrew from the Treaty on Nuclear Nuclear weapons, it would be almost exclusively a military solution to the problem.
