“In the early this year, the increase in the price of the apartments of apartments continued to brake, compared with the same period of the previous year. Locally, small price drops occurred. Comparison of the price level with the previous quarter indicates virtually no changes in the smaller capitals of the provinces, and in several largest agglomerations there were slight declines” – PKO BP Bank experts diagnose the current situation on the real estate market.
In the published report on real estate, they indicated that A high number of unsold apartments is maintained, the offer of which is currently record -breaking On the primary market (projects started several quarters ago during a boom) and secondary (favorable price level for sellers).
See also: The housing market inhibits. The seller is waiting for up to 2.5 months
“In a situation of lower demand and stable prices, some of the potential buyers expect a further decline in prices, as well as decisions regarding the government's apartment support program, which further weakens demand” – we read in the commentary.
Forecasts of housing prices
How do they expect a reduction in housing prices for expert analyzes expected by potential buyers? In PKO BP, in the base scenario, they expect the continuation of the current situation until autumn (possibly a low price correction), and in the last months of the year it is possible to appear light (within a few percent) upward trends.
“This will be favored by the slowly rebuilding housing demand and the offer of apartments reduced by developers on the primary market” – they comment.
The premises of a gradual increase in moderate demand are:
- Interest rate reduction in May 2025 (from 5.75 to 5.25 percent) and waiting for subsequent discounts (one half in the second half of 2025 and three in 2026)
- Implementation of postponed decisions to buy an apartment after information about the government's resignation from the program of subsidies for housing and the first signals of reviving the housing market
- persistent salary increase
See also: “Last straight” and “one doubt”. The government is finalizing work on the portal with real estate prices
The relevant and accumulating premises for the increase in prices on the supply side are indicated by experts in the following quarters are:
- The costs of amending the technical conditions (including requirements for playgrounds, mandatory rooms for joint use, higher minimum distances from the plot boundaries)
- High energy and services prices
- Increase in the prices of plots for development due to the possible restriction of their supply after the municipalities adopted general plans according to the new rules (introduced by the amended Act on spatial planning) or possible decision paralysis (if the municipality did not manage to adopt a general plan by the end of June 2026)
- Costs of so -called shelter Act (meeting its technical requirements will increase the investment costs)
- The costs of the amendment to the building directive
Housing prices will fall? Here are the conditions
“These factors mainly apply to new projects and will affect various severity and at different time horizon. Price drop cannot be ruled out. This situation may materialize in the event of strong demand and support shocks related to the geopolitical situation. Risk factors are an increase in inflation and interest rates and a decrease in population income causing a strong decrease in housing demand and a decrease in housing prices. The announcements of the introduction of catastral tax may also be negative on housing demand, “reads the PKO BP report.
