This is what Iran's retaliation may look like. “Lonely wolves” is just one of the threats
– The US attack on Iranian nuclear facilities is outrageous and will have “eternal consequences” – representatives of the Iranian authorities announced after an American attack on nuclear installations in their country.
How can Iran answer the US? What retaliation can Americans expect?
The expert in the field of international policy Radosław Pyffel in an interview with Onet calculates four potential answers of Iran.
– Iran can return to the action against Israel, and this morning he did it, and then attack American bases in the region. Secondly, he can try to destabilize the Strait of the Ormuz, which is of paramount importance for global oil markets – he says.
The third potential reaction, as the expert emphasizes, “unpaid militias and combat organizations”. – Yes, Hamas is pressed by Israel in gas, and Hezbollah is practically eliminated. But there are also Huti, for example, who already announce actions – he points out.
Another threat from Iran is associated with terrorist attacks. – We have so -called lonely wolves that nobody knows about and who can activate in different parts of the world, including probably also in the United States – says Pyffel.
Can terrorist attacks also occur in Europe?
– Europe made an interesting move, because although there is no “cards” to prevent war, it sat down for diplomatic talks with Iran this week. The worst would be if this hit now also went to Europe, which has many other challenges and problems – says the expert.
The analyst draws a disturbing scenario: – If these lonely wolves start to fire in the US, it can cause even greater sealing of American borders. And this can have consequences for many people from Poland who go to the United States for family, professional, business, scientific or simply tourist reasons. Unfortunately, I see the threat of such a development of a situation in which America, in fear of pro -Iranian tourist attacks, closes even more to abroad and the outside world in general.
“3 x H” can go beyond the Middle East
The reserve captain Maciej Lisowski, an armament expert, military, military and security expert, also speaks in an interview with Onet.
– As for Iran's retaliation, these are two types. Direct and indirect – he believes.
The latter applies to groups of organization that supports, finances and provides Iran.
– Hezbollah, Hamas, Huti and Szynes Militia in Iraq. The first three, conventionally call them “three times H” or 3 x H, will probably immediately start attacking Israeli and American bases in the Middle East. But not only. Propalestinian activists, as defined in Great Britain, infiltrated the largest RAF base and damaged two air tankers. So you can see that this is already happening a little further than in the Middle East region – warns Capt. Lisowski.
The expert reminds that there are a lot of American and British bases in the Middle East. – We are talking about the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, Iraq or Cyprus – he calculates.
Iran has something to attack
Capt. Lisowski is of the opinion that the launch of the above -mentioned organization is “the simplest and cheapest option for Iran”.
Direct retaliation, which Capt. Lisowski is an extension of attacks not only to Israeli objects, but to American bases. – Buswives can be conducted thanks to the rockets, which Iran fires several dozen every day to Israel. The question is, will American anti -missile and anti -aircraft systems shifted to that region earlier in the cover of all potential goals in the cover? – He wonders.
Onet's interlocutor points to one more issue, which Pyffel also talked about. It is about the potential blockade of the Strait of the ORMUZ. Capt. Lisowski points out that currently from two sources there is information that in the morning after the American attack Iran announced the closing of the Strait of the Ormuz.
– This is an extremely important point on the map, because a good 30 percent. The world -raw rotation is there. Does Iran have means to cut this strait? Iran gave Houtim ballistic anti -ship rockets, so yes, he has such means. How many of them were destroyed? We don't know that. But still Israeli aviation tries to destroy further launchers – he notes.
The Western Coalition will have no choice
The Polish military also calculates the further possibilities of Iran: – They have suicide subunits on fast boats unloaded with explosives in the body of the Islamic Revolution Guardians, which are able to at least damage or destroy any civil ship without protection. They also have fast boats and hydrofoles with rockets. And also miniature submarines, which are said to be the fruit of cooperation with North Korea.
The analyst has no doubt that “Iranians are able to reduce the capacity of the Strait of the ORMUZ, or even force it to be closed.” -We will then watch sea duels, because the Western coalition will have to send its surface, underwater or air-sea units there. Then we will witness sea and air-sea actions in that region. But regardless of their effects, they will affect commercial shipping and oil prices as such. To Putin's delight, unfortunately, he puts.
