– The investment market in Poland has matured in recent years – says Mateusz Bonca, CEO JLL Poland. – in the face of less interest of traditional institutional investors from Western Europe and the USA, A natural space was created for a more flexible local and regional capital – he explains.
Entities from Central and Eastern Europe, especially from the Czech Republic or Lithuania, are particularly highlighted. It is also a good time for family capital, which for many years was actually marginal, and today on the wave of economic development finally begins to function.
– Native capital has a stabilizing market, it is more flexible, stays longer, does not seek escape at the first major crisis – notes CEO JLL Poland. However, the problem is the lack of an appropriate legal framework for REIT structureswhich could be released by the capital of Poles frozen in apartments and increase the flows between individual market segments.
The land availability crisis drives the transformation
– Low availability of investment land and their rising prices remain one of the main challenges in current market conditions – says Tomasz Lewandowski, Head of Land & Mid Cap Investments in JLL Poland. In the long term, land prices will have an upward trend, and the expected interest rate discounts are an additional demand impulse.
Developers of Mieszkanie, struggling with a deficiency of areas for typical housing investments, are more and more willing to reach for land with different planning purposes. The JLL study shows that in the last five years About 1.1 million sq m of existing areas have been converted into a housing function. The largest “donors” of the areas were office buildings (733 thousand sq m) and commercial and service facilities (over 345,000 sq m).
The housing market in anticipation of revival
A slowdown is still felt on the housing market. – as monitoring JLL Currently, the housing offer in the six largest Polish cities is about 60 thousand. premises, which is a record high result – says Paweł Szteter, Head of Living in JLL Poland.
Sales remain at a stable but low level. Further potential interest rate reductions, which should facilitate some of the buyers, will be key to shaping demand. Recruitment among buyers buying on credit can be expected in autumn.
In the long term, demographic phenomena and political decisions regarding the market support program or EU regulations regarding heating costs will play a key role.
The office market focuses on the highest quality
Piotr Kamiński, Head of Office Leasing in JLL Poland, emphasizes the growing diversity of the Polish office market: – It is a mistake to see him as uniform. Warsaw, with a relatively stable vacancy rate of about 10 %, demonstrates strength, but even here the image is not uniform – explains the expert.
Read also: Warsaw office market with growing demand despite limited supply
Markets such as Kraków, Wrocław, Katowice or Łódź are struggling with the overparty space, where the level of unnecessary offices reaches nearly 20 percent. – The future, regardless of geography, is one of the best. This is best located and offering the highest standard buildings will enjoy unflagging interest – predicts Kamiński.
Difficult times are coming for older less attractive objects – Their owners will face the choice between expensive modernization and progressive marginalization.
Poland remains attractive to investors
Poland's position on the international map of investment attractiveness is constantly changing. – Until recently, we were the undisputed leader of the entire CEE region – says Dmytro Havrylenko, Head of Capital Markets at JLL Poland.
High financing costs and increased geopolitical risks make Western investors look at Eastern Europe more carefullywhich created conditions for local capital players. – We anticipate that Poland will remain the fastest growing economy in the European Union in the coming years, which makes it a stable, attractive place to invest – adds Havrylenko.
Suburbanization of housing is gaining momentum
Aleksandra Gawrońska, Director, Head of Residential Research in JLL Poland, draws attention to a significant spatial trend. – In the six largest cities of the country last year, developers built about 45,000 apartments and houses – in smaller centers they were created almost twice as much – informs the expert.
This state of affairs is responsible for the dissemination of the hybrid work model, investments in communication infrastructure and much lower prices implemented in the suburbs of apartments and houses. Living in suburban locations, they value neighborhood, closeness or locality, but a necessary condition is good communication with the center.
Another strengthening trend is the phenomenon of “Second Home” in towns with high tourist and recreation potential, used for their own needs and as investment assets.
The institutional rental regains vigor after years of stagnation
Extremely optimistic forecasts concern the PRS market, about which we wrote, among others in this article. Patrick Pedzech, Director, Living Investments in JLL Poland notes that after a few years of stagnation, The Polish institutional rental market regains vigor. At the end of 2024, the domestic sector of the PRS offered 22,300 apartments, of which over a quarter was put into use in last year.
Read also: Funds are pushing on the rental market. Have exceeded another barrier
Rising prices of premises and low availability of mortgage loans mean that more and more young people are going to the rental market. – According to our forecasts, in the next three years the offer of the Polish market will exceed 35 thousand. premises, and there will be almost 50,000 until the end of the decade. – predicts a hurry.
Flight to Quality in the arrangement of offices
– Although the costs of arranging offices are growing, companies are investing in class A office spaces. The trend referred to as Flight to Quality is more and more clearly outlined, i.e. a return towards high quality – emphasizes Artur Pakuła, Head of Project & Development Services JLL.
Modern, well -designed surfaces are to encourage employees to return to offices and increase their effectiveness. The increased importance of employees' presence, their comfort and the growing ESG requirements translate into an increase in interest in better materials and modern technological solutions.
Over the past 15 years, developers have completed 9 million sq m in Poland, which makes us one of the most modern markets in Europe.
The analysis of JLL experts indicates that the Polish real estate market, despite numerous challenges, retains development potential and remains attractive to various groups of investors, especially those focusing on quality and long -term perspective.
