Israeli attacks on Iran were possible thanks to the ability of Mosad to infiltrate Iran, organize a gun of weapons and create a drone base in this country – assessed in an interview with PAP prof. Eric Lob from Carnegie Middle East Program and the Faculty of International Relations at Florida International University.
When asked about the scale of infiltration, the expert reminded that Israel had been conducting secret operations, sabotage acts and attacks in Iran for years, and they would not be possible without the participation or support of some Iranian citizens.
“This is not surprising, because one of the greatest weaknesses of the Iranian state is the fact that part of the society openly opposes the regime. Therefore, it would not be a surprise if Israel used these moods and recruited people dissatisfied with current governments to cooperate with selected operations” – emphasized Lob.
He also pointed out that a few days after Israeli attacks on Iran from June 13 there were reports that the success of these activities was possible, among others Thanks to the ability of Israeli intelligence for infiltration of Iran, the transfer of weapons and the creation of a drone base in the country for conducting attacks using Kamikaze drones. Shortly afterwards, the Iranian authorities announced the arrest of two alleged Mosad agents, and also carried out execution of the person accused of cooperation with Israel and the provision of information to Mosad.
“There are more and more arrests and I am convinced that some of them may actually be related to Israeli intelligence operations aimed at the Iranian regime. At the same time, they are an excuse for the regime in Tehran, which feels threatened and therefore uses the situation to deal with real and alleged internal opponents” – noted the analyst.
From the Iranian point of view, Israeli attacks are a huge intelligence compromise and failure of their country's security services.
“Amazing that the United States two days before the Israeli attack began to evacuate civilian staff from military bases and diplomatic missions, and Iran did not nod with finger. No security measures were tightened, no possible hit was prepared, the key personnel was not transferred to safe places. Tall -off officials slept in their own beds in the middle of the night, as if it was not happening” Lob.
He pointed out that Iran reacted, limiting access to the Internet and demanding from citizens to remove WhatsApp from the phones, for fear that the application was infiltrated by Israeli or American services and can be used to set places or other goals in the territory of the country.
When asked about the Iranians' attitude to Israel, the expert assessed on the basis of the reactions he observed that “Iranians could be the strong opponents of the regime, which we have seen many times during protests and repression of activists, and at the same time they can be strongly attached to their country and, guided by a sense of national loyalty, not wanting to United States or Israel.
Lob stipulated that the situation was complex and difficult to clearly describe.
In his opinion, even if Israel and the United States ensure that the attacks are directed only at the infrastructure and military staff of Iran, then reality is different: there are civil victims, there are destruction and attacks for purposes whose character – military or civil – can be unclear. The effects of these activities directly affect the ordinary residents of Iran – he emphasized.
“Many Iranians live, understandable, in fear. They are trapped between the pressure of the United States and Israel on the one hand, and the repressive and authoritarian regime on the other – and simply try to survive. Unlike Israel in Iran, there is a lack of clear instructions from the state. There are no alarm systems, there are no shelters, society is completely defense. wars ” – assessed the expert.
Some Iranians are outraged by the approach of the Iranian diaspora, which applauds Israeli military activities, without thinking about their consequences and not seeing the human dimension of the situation.
When asked about how the current war would affect Iran, the analyst said that “it is difficult to find unequivocal forecasts, knowing the history of the Iranian regime and its paranoia and an authoritarian, repressive character.” He emphasized, however, that he would be inclined to claim that “if the regime survives this war, the internal situation would deteriorate.”
In this context, he recalled the example of Turkey, where after a failed coup in 2016, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and his AKP party tightened control over the state even more.
“The problem is that through the current war the situation in Iran will become even more difficult for those who count on changes, the democratic future of the country, but in the long run the regime can weaken. The growing dissatisfaction may encourage citizens not only to protests and opposition actions, but also – in extreme cases – to cooperate with external forces such as Israel,” he assessed.
Joanna Baczała (PAP)
Baj/ Akl/ LM/
