Trump is still counting on negotiations on the Iranian nuclear program. If Netanyahu disregards the US President and eliminates Ayatollah, Iran will no longer be the same country. The country where 90 million people live.
Although for now Chamenei is safe, Trump warns. “We know exactly where the so -called supreme leader hides,” wrote Trump on the Truth Social platform. “Is an easy goal.” Here Three scenarios for Iran: depressing, fairy -tale and terrifying.
At the age of 86, Ali Chamenei is the fifth oldest head of the world in the world. It is not surprising that the advice of experts entrusted with the election of the leader of the Revolution in Iran, is already intensively looking for a potential successor behind the scenes.
For a long time, former president Ebrahim Raisi was considered to be the promising candidate until he died in May 2024 in a helicopter disaster. Currently, 55-year-old Modschtaba Chamenei, the second oldest son of Ayatollah, and 62-year-old Sadegh Laridsan, a close advisor of Chamenei, are fighting for the lead.
The death of the Supreme Leader would, however, be for the Iranian “crisis moment” systemeven as a successor and the maintenance of the Mulł regime, says in an interview with Blicka, Iranian journalist Diako Shafiei, who lives in Switzerland.
– emphasizes.
Chamenei is not only the highest arbiter of all decisions in the country, but also provides a balance between competing circles of power.
Fairytale scenario: Revolution from below
Observers estimate that about 85 percent Very young people of Iran (two -thirds of Iranians are less than 30 years old) do not feel like living under the rule of mule. After decades of oppression and poor management, many of them want freedom. This was shown by “Protests against the headscarf”, which overwhelmed the country after the murder of young Jina Mahsy Amini in September 2022. Amini was beaten to death by the moral police for “incorrect” wearing a scarf.
Protests against the scarf again revealed the brutality with which Iranian guards treat their own population: at least 15,000 arrests, hundreds of dead, hundreds of death sentences – this is what the balance of this tragedy looks like. Iranian youth and opponents of the mules also lack a bright pattern, a leader who would lead mass through a difficult and dangerous area of a deep revolution.
Nevertheless, according to Diako Shafiei, Chamenei's death can “increase pressure from below.” The Iranian security apparatus has been weakened by Israeli strikes.
– emphasizes Blicka interlocutor.
Terrifying scenario: Iran breaks into shreds
90 million people live in this huge country (several times larger than Poland). ATThe case of a central, repressive form can cause rapid fighting for dominance in a Persian state-rina. The country is in a terrible economic situation, there is great poverty and desperation. The fight for survival can turn into a brutal fight. This would result in mass exodus.
Diako Shafiei also warns about this.
– he points out.
Sanam Vakil, head of the Middle East department in the British Think Tank Chatham House, writes on X that the country may fall apart into religious and ethnic “cantons”. This would result in civil war and the increase in the importance of non-state entities (such as Islamic State or Al-Qaida). One nightmare would chase the other.
