“Inflation in May, however, 4.0 percent slightly lower than preliminary estimates. In the following months we expect further decreases in inflation, among others thanks to reduced gas tariffs,” wrote Minister of Finance Andrzej Domański on the portal X.
In this way, he commented on the Friday message of the Central Statistical Office on inflation in May 2025. It shows that the average prices of consumer goods and services last month in annual terms increased by 4 %, and compared to April fell by 0.2 percent. This is a lower level than it resulted from preliminary data (4.1 percent) and primary forecasts (4.2-4.3 percent).
At the end of May, the Energy Regulatory Office announced the approval of the new PGNiG tariff from which the gas price will drop from the current PLN 239.65 per MWh to PLN 204.26 per MWH net. The tariff will become effective from July 1 and its entry into force will mean a decrease in gas bills by 8-11 percent. Depending on consumption.
Lower gas prices are not the only element that allows you to count on inflation. From July, the CPI index will explicitly drop year-on-year, because the comparative base will not harm caused by increases in energy prices in July 2024. Economists expect that the CPI index in the first month of the second half of 2025 may reach 2.5-3 percent. year on year, i.e. it would be for the inflation purpose of the NBP (it is 2.5 percent +/— 1 percentage point). In the following months of the second half of the year, the CPI indicator may stablize at these levels.
So there is a good chance that inflation in the second half of the year will be lower than expected by the National Bank of Poland in March projection (4.1 percent in the third quarter and 4.8 percent in the fourth quarter, respectively). Risk factor – taking into account Israel's attack on Iran and causing oil as a consequence – there are fuel prices.
What about next year? The government forecasts that the average annual CPI inflation in 2026 will be at 3 percent. – It results from the assumptions for the state budget project for next year adopted on Thursday by the Council of Ministers.
The inflation forecast for 2026 was reduced compared to the many years of macroeconomic assumptions taken over in April for 2025-2028 “. In April, the Ministry of Finance assumed that the average annual CPI inflation would be 3.8 percent next year.
