In the development of the conflict between Israel and Iran, a lot depends on the US's attitude – the Israeli analyst Eldad Szawit told PAP. US President Donald Trump supports Israel and wants to use the attack to put pressure on Tehran to accept the atomic agreement, but doubtful that he would succeed – the expert assessed.
The question arises whether the US will take the initiative in this conflict, especially since they have a wider ability to destroy Iranian nuclear objects than Israel, such as an underground uranium enrichment center in Fordo, 'said Szawit.
He added that Iran can now take a number of steps to which the US will have to react. Tehran can, for example, formally appear from a system with nuclear weapons (NPT).
According to Szawit, some factors indicate that the conflict will not end quickly. The analyst admitted that it is difficult for him to assess how much it will last, but the most important factor here will be the scope of damage to the Iranian nuclear infrastructure caused by Israel. He added that it is too early to present such grades for now.
The Israeli expert expressed doubts that Israel's conflict with Iran at this stage would cause significant changes in the war in the Gaza Strip or serious escalation with Lebanese Hezbollah or Yemeni Huti. It does not seem that one of the forces allied with Tehran can now replace Iran in response to Israeli attacks – commented the analyst.
Eldad Szawit served for many years in an Israeli military interview and worked in the government, and is currently a senior analyst of the Institute of National Security Studies (INSS) at the University of Telawiv.
Israel began massive attacks on Iran on Friday morning, declaring that their goal is nuclear and military facilities. Israel accuses Iran of accelerating the production of nuclear weapons, which would be an existential threat to the Jewish state. Netanyahu said on Friday that Iran has enough enriched uranium to build nine atomic bombs.
From mid -April, the US has been conducting negotiations with Iran about the nuclear agreement, which would limit the atomic program of this country in exchange for the abolition of some sanctions.
Trump emphasized that the main goal of the US is to prevent Iran from building an atomic weapon. He threatened military and economic consequences many times, if Tehran rejected the agreement, at the same time he emphasized that he prefers a diplomatic solution.
According to the media, Trump agreed to the Israeli attack on Iran, and the operation was coordinated from the USA. The White House did not confirm these reports. At the end of May, Trump publicly said that he had given Izreal Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu that the attack on Iran would be inappropriate because the USA is close to reaching agreement with Iran.
So far, five rounds of American-Iranian negotiations have been held, in which Oman mediated. The media reported that the sites of the pages seem difficult to reconcile. Iran rejected the US demand to stop enriching uranium.
The sixth round of conversations was announced on Sunday. On Saturday, Iranian diplomacy reported that after the start of Israeli attacks, negotiations at this stage “does not make sense”. The Oman Ministry of Foreign Affairs then announced the cancellation of Sunday talks.
The American envoy for the Middle East Steve Witkoff declared on Friday that he wants to continue the prognosis with Iran.
Trump praised the Israeli attacks on Friday and called Iran to accept the agreement “before nothing left of this country.”
Iran has been a NPT party since 1970, which prohibits actions to obtain atomic weapons. In 2003, the International Atomic Energy Agency (Maea) stated that Iran did not meet its obligations arising from NPT. The agency formally repeated these allegations on Thursday. On the same day, Iran announced that he was going to open a new uranium enrichment plant.
Israel and the USA have long been accusing Iran of developing a nuclear weapon construction program. Tehran consistently denies, arguing that his nuclear program has only civil character.
From Jerusalem Jerzy Adamiak (PAP)
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