The head of the intelligence claims that the Kremlin's goal is to re -expand the Russian influence zone to the West. “They [Rosjanie] They want to turn back to the state from the late 1990s. They want to throw America out of Europe and are ready to use all means for this purpose, “said Kahl.
The German intelligence service considers Russia's attack on NATO's territory likely. According to Kahl in Moscow, there are “people who no longer believe that Article 5. NATO works. And they would like to check it.”
Art. 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty states that if one of the members of the alliance is attacked, it means an attack on the entire NATO, and in such a situation “allies will” take immediate action that they consider necessary, including the use of armed force. “
And this foundation of the North Atlantic Alliance, according to the head of BND Kahl, Russian dictator Vladimir Putin may want to test. The current tension in international relations is also not served by the threat of US President Donald Trump, who repeatedly warned against the US leaving NATO and accused European members that they did not do enough for defense.
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Before 1999, NATO consisted of 16 countries (including Germany, the USA and Turkey). In March 1999 there was an extension to the east: Poland, the Czech Republic and Hungary joined the alliance.
Baltic states (Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania) have only been NATO members only since 2004. They have been often indicated as the potential goals of Russia's attack.
Before the start of the full -glass invasion of Ukraine, the Russians formulated their demands in 2021. They demanded then, among others Further not discharging NATO to the east and the cessation of the stationing of allied troops in the “New Tours” of the North Atlantic Alliance in Eastern Europe, i.e. in Poland.
In a similar spirit in recent days, the Russian deputy minister of foreign affairs spoke, who stated that NATO must “leave” from Eastern Europe so that Russia would end the invasion of Ukraine.
These words confirm the Kremlin's intentions. For the Russians, the war in Ukraine is apparently part of a larger puzzle, which aims to restore Moscow to the former power status and lost influence.
“There are no signs that Putin has changed his attitude”
However, what means of the Russians will use for possible provocation depends on many factors
Kahl believes that Russia does not have to carry out “great bomber raids or send tank army” to test the alliance. Just send “small green people” to Estonia to allegedly protect the oppressed Russian minorities.
“It would be a test for the alliance,” says the head of German intelligence.
In 2014, Putin sent Russian troops to Crimea without state markings (Russian propaganda, followed by the media, called soldiers “green men”) to occupy the Ukrainian peninsula.
Dan Kitwood / Staff / Getty Images
Russian soldiers before the Ukrainian military base in Simferpol, Crimea, 2014.
At that time, NATO underestimated the threat, or at least it was unable to prevent the war in eastern Ukraine in a full -scale invasion of the whole country.
In the face of Russian plans, Kahl warns: “deterrence is the least bloody way to prevent war.” The head of German intelligence does not believe that Western negotiations with Russia are currently a promising solution.
“There are no signs that Putin has changed his aggressive attitude,” said Kahl. Russia's demands, which were recently presented, are proof that Moscow is demanding the surrender of Ukraine “and nothing more.”
I’m Ashley Davis as an editor, I’m committed to upholding the highest standards of integrity and accuracy in every piece we publish. My work is driven by curiosity, a passion for truth, and a belief that journalism plays a crucial role in shaping public discourse. I strive to tell stories that not only inform but also inspire action and conversation.
