“It seems that the Polish GDP for the last 12 months has already exceeded a trillion of dollars” – Economic journalist Rafał Hirsch estimates on the basis of GUS data.
“Assuming a similar nominal growth rate, now we should be around PLN 3.74 trillion, and the dollar is PLN 3.73. It gives 1.003 trillion dol.” – explains Rafał Hirsch on the X. platform.
Economists forecast Polish GDP
“Private consumption is still the main driving force of the economyalthough it brake (+2.5 percent y/y). We noted a solid investment increase (+6.3 percent y/y), but it is possible that it is again defense or other expenses, because data from large companies show a decrease in expenditure. Changing inventory: +1.5 points percent Net exports: -1.1 points percent. ” – Comment on the new data of the CSO economists ING Bank Śląski.
They assess that “GDP remains on the path of solid growth“.
“We still feel comfortable with our year -round GDP growth forecast by 3.3 percent.” – add economists of PKO BP.
Krystian Jaworski from Credit Agricole indicates that by raising the starting point, today's GDP data in combination with monthly data behind April published in the last few weeks they signal “light risk up to the economic growth forecast in 2025. “.
He adds that Monday, significantly worse than expectations, the May PMI indicator signals the risk down to the prospects of economic growth. At Credit Agricole, economists believe that the announcements of a strong growth of duties to goods exported from the EU to the US are a significant risk factor down for GDP dynamics in the second half of the year.
“Thus, we maintain our economic growth forecast for 2025 (3.1 % compared to 2.9 percent in 2024). In our opinion, today's GDP data are neutral for the gold rate and the profitability of Polish bonds, “they assess.
