Poland elections: Shock in the camp in power. Donald Tusk is expected to move decisively for his coalition

The politicians in the ruling camp expect Prime Minister Donald Tusk to ask a vote of his government this week. They doubt the scenario of the early elections, but they admit that the plans of the coalition have collapsed as a sand castle, reports the Polish news portal.

The Eurosceptic Karol Nawrocki will become the new president of Poland, given that the national electoral commission has counted 100% of the polling stations. They show that Nawrocki, the candidate of the Party Law and Justice (PIS) won the second round of the presidential elections with 50.89% of the votes expressed, under the conditions of a huge presence in the ballot box. The candidate supported by the civic coalition of Prime Minister Donald Tusk, the liberal Rafał Trzaskowski, obtained 49.11%.

Pis voices have already called for the dissolution of Parliament in order to organize early elections. Pis is the party with the most mandates in the Warsaw Legislature, but Donald Tusk returned to power after the elections organized by Poland in 2023 as PIS did not have enough allies to create a parliamentary majority.

“Have you noticed that Donald did not appear on the night of the elections? He was in the shadow. He must have felt what was going to happen,” one of the politicians in the Civic Coalition told Onet, immediately after presenting the EXIT POLL indicating Karol Nawrocki's limit.

Until the last hours of the campaign for the second round, Rafał Trzaskowski's campaign staff officially repeated that the final result was not sure and that Nawrocki has a considerable chance to win, trying to mobilize voters to vote.

But the results that came during the night are a shock for Donald Tusk's camp. In recent weeks, some ministers have listed projects that could be completed with the participation of a civic coalition president.

Tusk's ruling coalition will have great trouble implementing its agenda

The scenario with Karol Nawrocki in the Presidential Palace could mean that for coalition will remain only the administration of current affairs until the following parliamentary elections, scheduled for the autumn of 2027. It would mean two and a half years of political stagnation to which this government block led by Tusk may not survive.

“We can forget about the reforms in justice, the changes in the prosecutor's office, the key promises we made before the 2023 elections. We will not have ambassador appointments. Every change in a key function in the army will have to be approved by Nawrocki.

From the perspective of the ruling coalition, this would be one of the less evil scenarios. The government camp risks breaking down. Among those in government, the belief reigns that Karol Nawrocki in the Presidential Palace will not be a second Andrzej Duda, but a Andrzej Duda “La Cub”. No important project of the ruling coalition would receive its support.

In addition to the laws regarding the judicial system or the Constitutional Court, the legislative changes that liberalize abortion or introduce civil partnerships will be delayed.

There is no question of anticipated elections in Poland but reigns fear

The sources in the Power Camp expect Prime Minister Donald Tusk to take the word quickly after the defeat of Rafał Trzaskowski. For several days, the scenario according to which – if Karol Nawrocki would win – the prime minister would quickly request a vote for his government, to put an end to any anticipated parliamentary elections.

Tusk recently denied that he would follow a shortening of Parliament's mandate in this situation. However, the Polish press writes that it is clear that it will have to rethink its plans for the coming months. In an interview given before the second round, it announced the renegotiation of the coalition agreement and important changes in the Government.

Restructuring in Tusk's office are almost safe, regardless of the result of the presidential elections.

In fact, even the smaller partners in the coalition want to hear of early elections. In a discussion with Oneta politician from the Polish People's Party (PSL) said before the elections that this scenario is excluded, being extremely risky for the Agrarian formation in Tusk's Alliance, who is to organize a Congress to which the new president of the party will be elected.

Until now, the position of Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz, current Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Defense, was unwavering. Nothing indicates, for now, that this will change. Kosiniak-Kamysz is the PSL president.

However, it remains to be seen how Szymon Hołownia, the leader of the Poland 2050 formation, will react, who should give up the position of president of the Parliament. For months, from his close circle they came signals that Hołownia-who obtained under 5% of the votes in the first round of the presidential elections-would not want to leave the second function in the state.

However, this could lead to turbulence within the coalition, because the leader of the new left does not want to hear changes in the coalition agreement in this regard.

Time for changes in Civic Coalition led by Tusk?

The question remains whether an evaluation will take place inside the civic coalition. Those who have been corresponding to Rafał Trzaskowski's campaign are now important members of Donald Tusk's government, especially Sławomir Nitras, Sport Minister, and Cezary Tomczyk, Secretary of State in the Ministry of Defense.

After the first round of the presidential elections, there were already signals from the government camp that the prime minister was dissatisfied with the direction of the campaign of the mayor of Warsaw. On the other hand, the result of Rafał Trzaskowski is also a consequence of the policy carried out by Donald Tusk. Under its leadership, the coalition failed to meet many of the electoral promises made a year and a half ago.

Some of our interlocutors on the night of elections believe that the background analysis will have to wait, but the subject of migration, as well as the attitude towards the Ukrainian citizens could have played a significant role.

Although in recent months the power has clearly transferred to the right in these issues, this has proven to be totally inefficient-PIS and, to some extent, the far-right party Konfederacja have been perceived as more credible in this regard, concludes ONET.