Five years ago, when Pandemia paralyzed the global economy, desperate economists reached for innovative funds, such as mobility data and reservations in restaurants and cinemas to track the effects of real -time closing the market. Currently The world is desperately trying to estimate the damage caused by the drastic duties imposed by Donald Trump For Chinese imports, and experts again reach for innovative techniques. Their findings suggest that the world's largest economy has not yet been in a difficult situation. The trouble is just coming.
Even before the introduction of many duties on April 9, the polls indicated that American consumers and enterprises are concerned. According to a study conducted by the Federal Reserve System in Dallas, industrial production fell to a record low level in April. The data published on April 30 showed that United States GDP shrunk by 0.3 percent. on an annual basis. The commercial deficit increased because the companies quickly collected the supplies of foreign goods before the entry into force of the duties.
Real time data allows economists to see what happened since then. Many indicators from the Covid-19 pandemic period do not matter or are no longer published. Fortunately, however, world trade is traveled thoroughly. The ships go to the sea and need a few weeks to come to the port. During this time, they provide their position to satellites and provide a list of transported goods.
Some indicators may suggest that the impact of trade war is limited so far. In the week ending on April 25 to the ports in Los Angeles and Long Beach – the US -preferred entrance gates for goods from China – 10 container containers from 555,000 came. t goods. This is about the same as a year ago. However, many freight ships that are currently coming, came before the introduction of duties.
Commercial shock
Other data is more disturbing. According to the Analytical Company, Vizion in the week starting on April 14 The number of reservations of new cruises between China and the US has dropped by 45 percent. year on year. The number of cruises without load, i.e. those in which the ship bypasses the port or carrier reduces the number of ships on a given route, increased to 40 percent. all planned transport. Price data suggest that trade flows are changing.
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According to the logistics company Freightos in the last month, the cost of transport between Shanghai and Los Angeles He fell by approx. 1 thous. hole. (PLN 3.7 thousand) for a container, because enterprises have gone from overtaking duties to avoid them. The price of transporting goods from Vietnam to the US has increased by a similar amount, which suggests that importers are looking for alternative suppliers.
Commercial shock needs time to spread in the economy, which means that The full range of damage can still be distant. For example, companies can rely on their supplies for some time. The demand for customs magazines, which allow companies to store goods near ports and pay duties only at the time of their dismissal, increased rapidly.
Many companies also decide not to raise prices – which theoretically they should do to ration of supplies – because they are related to existing contracts or want to keep relationships with clients in case Trump changed his mind. And the 90-day suspension of the most extreme duties to other Asian countries will give importers a chance to reorganize production. For example, Apple plans to bring more iPhones from India to the American market, not from China.
A freight ship at the Chinese port of QingdaoCfoto / AFP
Poor forecasts
However, the flexibility of supply chains has its limits. Studies of much more moderate duties, which were imposed during the first term of Trump, showed that the tariffs were in full transferred to American consumers. Finding alternative suppliers took companies around a year. According to Peter Sanda from the Consulting Company Xeneta, which deals with logistics, in the short term uncertainty caused by the inconsistent Trump's policy surprised many transport companies – even after 10 years of problems caused by Pandemia, blocking the Suez Canal and Huti attacks in the Red Sea.
It will have negative impact on trade and economyeven if the US gives up the most restrictive resources. Ships that have not sailed on time will come with a delay or not at all. The supplies will be exhausted. Many companies have froze investments and employment plans that can slowly resume.
Can these economic costs lead to quick political game? Free trade supporters who hope so can be disappointed. In the latest article by David author from Massachusetts Institute of Technology and his colleagues, we read that most of the places that suffered from Trump's duties during his first term of office, told On the Republican side. The authors speculate that voters could recognize that “confrontation” with China is more important than costs. The USA is not yet suffering from a commercial storm they have caused. However, forecasts for sailing are not good.
I’m Ashley Davis as an editor, I’m committed to upholding the highest standards of integrity and accuracy in every piece we publish. My work is driven by curiosity, a passion for truth, and a belief that journalism plays a crucial role in shaping public discourse. I strive to tell stories that not only inform but also inspire action and conversation.
