This is the second quarter in a row, when Orlen reports several billion zlotys. The result for the first three months of 2025 turned out to be better nearly 55 percent. This is the first periodic report taking into account the new business division according to the updated strategy “Energy of tomorrow begins today”.
The Orlen Group in the first quarter of 2024 generated revenues at the level of PLN 73.5 billion (-10.7% yard), and the net profit amounted to PLN 4.3 billion (+54.5% RDR). The corrected Ebidt Lifo result, including One -off events, reserves movements amounted to PLN 11.6 billion and was higher by 40.2% yaws.
The market consensus based on the average expectations of analysts covering the company published on the investor's relationship website assumed a net profit of PLN 4.6 billion in the first quarter of 2025 RR, and the EBITDA LIFO result of PLN 10.9 billion. PAP Biznes consensus assumed that in the first quarter the Orlen Group would have PLN 72.9 billion in revenues.
Lower revenues as a result of a decrease in refinery and petrochemical products as well as lower realized prices for the sale of natural gas and fuels. Lower sales volumes in the Downstream and Consumer & Products segment partly compensated by the growth of volumes in the Upstream & Supply segment, it was reported.
EBITDA LIFO higher as a result of a lack of loads from a gas write -off and solid operational results of Energy and Consumers & Products segments, partly limited by the negative impact of refinery and petrochemical margins, was added in the result presentation.
The corrected EBITDA LIFO took into account the net DDPiS updating the value of fixed assets. A write -off in ORLEN – CGU Petrochemia in the amount of PLN 962 million was diagnosed. In turn, subsequent tests for the loss of value in the Refinery in Mojejki showed a copy of PLN 261 million. We would like to remind you that last year Orlen wrote Lithuanian refinery to zero.
Subsequent write -offs are related to new expenditure incurred during the first quarter of 2025 for the implementation of the investment in the Hydrocraking installation in Lithuania, and in Orlen – CGU Petrochemia, investments in the New Chemistry project. In addition, the group recognized write -offs in the Upstream & Supply segment in the amount of PLN 137 million, which concerned the expenditure incurred in the search and recognition phase of deposits for failure.
President: We organize the group
Good financial results are measurable effects of organizing the situation in the group and implementation of the ambitious 2035 strategy ” – assessed the president of Orlen Ireneusz Fąfara, quoted in a press release.
He emphasized that the Orlen Group focuses on strategic goals: “It is ensuring its own and imported gas necessary for the transformation of the Polish economy, decarbonization of production capacity, investments in the distribution network of energy and gas, or increasing renewable power.”
Analysts forecast: Orlen with the greatest increase in profit in 2025.
One of the basic factors that can drive a share price is to improve the results. We check whose profits can go up according to the consensus collected by the Bloomberg agency.
“The reflection of the good reception of the chosen development directions is the ORLEN share price, which has been noticing an increase of almost 50 percent since the beginning of the year and is the highest in the history of the integrated group – noted Ireneusz Fąfara.
Model margins began to grow
In the first quarter of the year, the model refinery margin was $ 8.7. on Baryłka, which means that it has improved compared to the last quarter of the last year, when it was calculated at $ 7.7/b. In an annual basis, it dropped by 45.3 percent. The quarterly margin was carried out at the average price of Brent oil of $ 75.7. for the barrel, compared to $ 83.2/bwarta last year and $ 74.7/BW previous quarter. The differential was $ 0.2/B compared to $ 0.8/BW preceding quarter.
The model margin in a simplified way shows how much a barrel of oil is able to earn a refinery in a situation where it sells fuels in Ara ports (Antwerp, Rotterdam and Amsterdam) without other production costs or transport costs. Each oil processing company has its own formula for a model margin depending on the proportions in what proportions it produces gasoline, diesel or other oil derivatives. More about margins in the article “Giant showed how his refineries could earn.”
It is similar with a model petrochemical margin, which more in the article “Orlen changed the margin and showed it to the world.” It is worth recalling that the margins for this segment Orlen hid for a long time, but this year he began to show it again. Wi quarter of 2025. The model petrochemical margin was 145 euros/t against EUR 209/TW and the quarter of last year. This means a decrease by 30.6% while in terms of the quarter to the quarter increased by 5.8% from 137 euros/t.
New division of Orlen's business
Among the current 6 main business lines of Orlen, including refinery, oil and gas extraction, energy, petrochemia, gas and detail, updating the group's strategy until 2035, “Energy of tomorrow starts today”, set four new key segments of activity including: Upstream & Supply, Downstream, Energy, Consumers & Products.
As Orlen said in a message higher by PLN 2.7 billion (y/y) EBITDA profit at the level of PLN 5.3 billion has generated the segment Upstream & Supply. The concern achieved this result as a result of higher gas lights. The lack of a copy for the Fund for Payment of Price Differentia was also important for the result. The production of hydrocarbons at that time amounted to about 210 thousand. Boe/D, of which 73 percent It was gas, extracted mainly from Norwegian and Polish deposits, and 27 percent It was oil and LNG.
Segment Energy He generated EBITDA profit of PLN 4.3 billion, higher by PLN 614 million (y/y). The increase was made by better results of distribution networks (energy and gas) – PLN 541 million and heating – PLN 145 million. Currently nearly 65 percent electricity generated by the concern comes from low and zero-emission sources.
The persistent difficult macroeconomic surroundings for petrochemistry, and at the same time the normalizing level of the refinery margin were of key importance for the result of the EBITDA LIFO achieved by the segment
Downstreamwhich amounted to over PLN 1.2 billion. In the first quarter of this year. Rafineries belonging to the Orlen group converted 9.2 million tons of oil and it was a level similar to the one earlier a year earlier – the concern said.
Segment eBITDA Consumers & Products amounted to PLN 1.2 billion and was higher by 963 million (y/y). According to the new strategy, this segment is currently integrating the sale of energy carriers: gas, electricity and fuels to final recipients.
The Orlen network already has over 3.5 thousand stations and over 2.7 thousand non -fuel sales points. The company also has almost 880 alternative refueling stations on six European markets.
“It was a very good quarter for the Orlen Group and its shareholders, both in operational and financial terms. We achieved the EBITDA LIFO by 40 % higher. Higher flows from operating activities, which amounted to less than PLN 16 billion. commented on Magdalena Bartoś, Vice President of the Management Board of Financial Affairs.
Michał Kubicki
