Estimates of the VAT gap are made using the top-down method using detailed GUS statistical data on the tax base. The main elements of the economic VAT base are: private consumption, investments and indirect consumption of the sector of government and local government institutions as well as investments and indirect consumption of other sectors without deductible. In addition, information is taken into account on limiting the right to deduct. Detailed data allow you to estimate theoretical VAT revenues and compare them with actually realized revenues to the state budget – MF informed.
Estimates of the VAT gap for 2022-2023, despite taking into account the impact of significant system changes, such as anti-inflationary discs or energy compensation, indicate a significant increase in the gaps in relation to the preceding years. In 2023, the VAT gap was 13.5 percent. Current estimates indicate a decrease in VAT in Poland in 2024 to 6.9 percent. – the ministry wrote.
As explained by the Ministry of Finance, the VAT gap is the difference between potential VAT income based on the consumption of goods and services from national accounts and actual VAT income in the memorial terms, i.e. according to ESA (European National and Regional Accounts System). In Polish conditions, this approach also ensures the purification of data from disorders at the turn of the years, because the income from VAT from January in practice is assigned to the previous year – MF pointed out.
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He stipulated that the estimates of the VAT gap for 2022-2024 are based on the available CSO indicators regarding the entire economy. There is currently no detailed data regarding the structure of the VAT base for recent years. Estimates indicate, however, that from 2022 the VAT gap in Poland increased, while in 2024 we observe a decrease in the gap in relation to 2023.
“To estimate the VAT gap, in recent years, extrapolation methods and expert assumptions have been used. According to the latest data, the VAT gap in 2024 amounted to about 6.9 percent of theoretical revenues, i.e. approx. PLN 21.5 billion” – added the ministry.
On Wednesday, the Minister of Finance Andrzej Domański wrote on platform X that “Already in the first year of rule we stopped the growth of the VAT gap during PiS rule. We observe, draw conclusions and react. Thanks to this the VAT gap fell from 13.5 percent in 2023 to 6.9 percent in 2024.”
Last year, the Ministry of Finance reported that the VAT gap increased from 7.3 percent. in 2022 to 15.8 percent In 2024. However, the deputy finance minister Jarosław Neneman recently told PAP that the VAT gap was overwhelmed last year.
Leszek Skiba approached the words of Minister Domański, who was the Undersecretary of State in the Ministry of Finance from 2015 to 2020, and later for four years the president of Bank Pekao, and currently the president of the Sobieski Institute. On portal X wrote that usually VAT for February and March is about 64 percent. VAT from December and January. He added that at the turn of 2023 and 2024 it was as much as 102 percent. “We can suspect that about PLN 8.3 billion of VAT returns were shifted from December 2023 and January 2024 to February and March 2024 to to correct The result of 2024 and worsen 2023. The second chart shows the data of the European Commission. However, if there were no manipulation of VAT returns by about PLN 8.3 billion, it would turn out that the gap does not fall, but grows! The real VAT gap in 2024 grows up to 9.6 percent, “he wrote.
