Race with endless end to anticipate in Poland. Nawrocki Conservatory reduces the difference that separates him from the Liberal Trzaskowski before Sunday's choices

Prime Minister Donald Tusk's ally, the mayor of Warsaw Vafal Trzaskowski, is still a favorite to win the presidential elections, but his advantage has decreased in the last month, confirming the polarization of the electorate, the data quoted by Gazeta Wyborcza and TVP Info shows.

• This article was made in the cross -border project Pulse de Hotnews.ro and Gazeta Wyborcza (Poland)

A new poll, published on Friday morning by TVP Info, suggests that the difference between the Liberal candidate Vafal Trzaskowski and his conservative Karol Nawrocki has shrunk before the first tour of the presidential elections, which will take place on May 18.

The survey conducted by Ipsos shows Trzaskowski, supported by the Civic Coalition (KO), in government, at 28%, with four percentage points in front of Nawrocki, the candidate supported by the Conservative Law and Justice Party (PIS).

The difference is with a few percentage points lower than about a month ago.

Trzaskowski's score, writes Gazeta Wyborcza, dropped after a series of debates from April, in which the liberal candidate had a mediocre performance.

The Friday survey shows that Trzaskowski did not recover the losses in April, his support being slightly lower than the party that supports him, KO, credited by about 30 %.

Karol Nawrocki, shows the same poll, has won two percentage points in April, and the support for him increased from 22 to 24%.

Increasing support for the Conservative candidate came at a time when he was the target of disclosures that showed that he bought an apartment in exchange for the care of a vulnerable pensioner-according to an agreement that he actually did not respect.

The survey also shows that Sławomir Mentzen, the candidate of the far -right party Confederation, is also at a loss – it has dropped from 15% to 13% of April, confirming a downward trend.

In the second round, according to the Ipsos survey, Trzaskowski could count on 49% of the votes, and Nawrocki on 45%.

What do other polls say

Another analysis has also suggested that Trzaskowski's advantage is reduced.

An opinion poll24 for TVN on Thursday credits Trzaskowski by 29%, and Nawrocki with 24%.

An advantage of four percentage points, with two fewer than at the beginning of the month.

In the second round, Trzaskowski will still win the duel with Nawrocki, says the same poll, with 48% at 45%, says the same poll.

But it is visible that the difference has decreased here. In the previous survey of opinion24, Trzaskowski was credited by 50%, and Nawrocki with 41%.

In another survey, CBOS, Trzaskowski has 32.7% in the first round, followed by Nawrocki by 27.5%.

Will Nawrocki benefit from Mentzen's votes?

One of the essential questions for the second round of the Poland elections, scheduled for June 1, is what will happen to the votes of man in the third place in the polls – Sławomir Mentzen, the candidate of the far -right party Confederation.

Mentzen was violently attacked in the campaign on Nawrocki in the scandal that broke out on the theme bought by him in unclear conditions from a vulnerable elder.

The far right politician accused Nawrocki of “took over an apartment from an elderly and sick person without paying him”, “in addition, he lied to the notary that he paid, forced the seller of the apartment to lie.”

This did not matter for the Conservative electorate of PIS, the party that supports Nawrocki.

The latest CBOS analysis, writes Gazeta Wyborcza, shows that PIS electorates and Confederation are very close to each other.

So close that Nawrocki's apartment will not divide them, journalists write.

Conservative strategy

In the latest analysis, the CBOS Institute described four groups of voters of the main political parties: pro-EU progressists, liberals, national conservatives and pro-social centrists.

The third group includes PIS and Confederation voters. They support the restrictive laws against abortion, oppose the legalization of the partnership between people of the same sex and strongly emphasize the need for Poland to maintain their deep independence within the EU.

They value the security of the job more than others and support the state property in the economy, they are also mostly overwhelming in favor of progressive taxes.

They are rather against further support for Ukraine.

Therefore, writes Gazeta Wyborcza, PIS now underlines where you can rely on voting flows.

For several days, Nawrocki and Pis politicians repeat that Poland will send troops to Ukraine, despite the fact that the government has firmly emphasized that it will not.

Nawrocki has also recently met with George Simion, the leader of the Romanians' Unit (gold), a party that Gazeta Wyborcza catalogs “to the radical right, pro -oscova and anti-Ukraine.”

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