KO and PiS de facto draw. The confederation is far behind

31.8 percent respondents support KO, a vote for PiS would vote 31.2 percent, and 11.2 percent to the confederation – according to a survey conducted by Ibris commissioned by Onet. Electoral turnout would be 58.5 percent.

In the parliamentary elections 31.8 percent respondents would vote for the Civic Coalition, 31.2 percent for Law and Justice, and 11.2 percent respondents supported the confederation. 8 percent Respondents support the third road (Polish Coalition 2050 and the Polish People's Party), i.e. – as Onet reminded – exactly as much as the election threshold for the coalition. The left supports 7.5 percent respondents, 3.6 percent Party Together, and 6.7 percent respondents replied that they did not know who he would vote for.

Electoral turnout would be 58.5 percent, 38.1 percent respondents answered that they would not take part in elections, and 3.4 percent. She replied that it was difficult to say.

Based on the results of this study, Onet simulated the division of seats in the Sejm, which shows that KO would have won 170 seats, PiS 186, 51 there would be a confederation, 31 third road, and 22 seats would be won by the left.

The study indicated that their geographical distribution significantly determines the division of votes into mandates, including Therefore, despite greater support for KO, PiS won more of them.

“The current division of seats between constituencies has not been updated for years. In particular, large cities are losing, in which Donald Tusk's grouping most often wins” – it was indicated.

Onet noticed that the ruling coalition would have 223 places in the Sejm, and it is necessary to have 231 deputies for a stable majority, which creates a field for PiS and confederation. If the third road was under the electoral threshold, the new simulation shows that KO and the left could only count on 212 seats – added Onet.

The IBRIS study at the request of Onet was carried out on May 12-13, 2025 by telephone, standardized computer-assisted questionnaire interviews (CATI) at a research sample of 1072 adult Poles. (PAP)

Pab/ MRR/