The split among voters of Sławomir Mentzen. The case of Karol Nawrocki casts a shadow to the second round
The president of Ibris, when asked about the last election polls, emphasized that For a long time, they have been showing a similar result: the clash in the second round of the President of Warsaw Rafał Trzaskowski (KO) and the President of the IPN Karol Nawrocki, supported by PiS, and the victory of the former. He also noted that the dynamics of the campaign two weeks before the second round will increase, and the bars will fight to support the candidates who will fall off the race for the presidential chair.
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An uncomfortable history of the apartment and voters' decisions
The matter of acquiring a studio apartment by Karol Nawrocki from a senior resident of Gdańsk caused controversy. As Marcin Duma indicates, the translation of the PiS candidate met with rejection among the confederation electorate. Earlier studies showed that from 60 to 70 percent Voters of Sławomir Mentzen considered a voice for Nawrocki.
The confusion around the case led to the “deepening resentment” of this candidate. – The Electorate of the Confederation and Grzegorz Braun did not buy these translations – says pride.
The head of Ibris also points out that Mentzen's reluctance to Rafał Trzaskowski is not tantamount to support for Nawrocki. – They will stay at home, because Rafał Trzaskowski is also not a candidate from their fairy tale. Only that if we look at what the arithmetic system looks like in the second round, then the Mentzen voters disappearing from the pool actually do not harm Trzaskowski. Their absence from his point of view does not change anything, and even causes that its percentage value, which he can get, is greater – he assessed.
Fight for voters of Sławomir Mentzen
The time between the vote in the election and their second round, which is somehow “an extra time campaign”, according to President Ibris will pass in the staff of Nawrocki on communication addressed to voters Sławomir Mentzen and Grzegorz Braun, but they would go to the election and vote for a candidate supported by PiS. He assessed that For a declaration of Nawrocki's support by these politicians, “it will probably be difficult”, but perhaps support would not be achieved.
– Maybe some political arrangements can be persuaded to say what Szymon Hołownia said in 2020, “I don't support Rafał Trzaskowski, but not vote for Andrzej Duda,” he said.
The big is falling apart
According to Duma, the campaign showed that the current PiS-PO duopola “begins to fall apart”as indicated by the “lowest in 20 years” of the support of the candidates of both parties, which-depending on the survey-oscillates around 50-60 percent. The summary of the presidential elections from 2020. The summed support of Trzaskowski and President Andrzej Duda was nearly 74 percent.
– A very large group of citizens who do not want Duopol have grown. He is shaking. If we were to analyze today how the results of these two candidates for the number of votes translate, then in the last two votes: in the presidential of 2020 and the Sejm from 2023, I would like to remind you, over 14 million votes got a large votes, today according to those polls we have, it would be a value within 10, maybe 11 million, which said.
