New calculations. What are the scenarios for a future government if Nicușor Dan arrives in Cotroceni. “Probably none of the mainstream parties would be very pleased to reach the government.”
According to the calculations on how gold and they can coagulate a majority in the Parliament to fulfill George Simion's desire to install Călin Georgescu, today, Hotnews presents you the scenarios of possible governance formulas if Nicușor Dan will be elected president.
Under the conditions of Marcel Ciolacu's resignation from the position of prime minister and the intention of the PSD to exit the PNL, UDMR and national minorities, the president who will be elected on May 18 will play an important role in the formation of a government with full powers after the elections. So far, PNL and UDMR have announced that they are supporting Nicușor Dan in the second round, while the PSD has voted to remain neutral, not to support any candidate.
On Tuesday, the National Bank of Romania announced for the first time a course of 5.03 lei for one euro, and Nicușor Dan was asked about the resignation of Marcel Ciolacu from the forefront:
“I do not think it was suitable that after the November elections, Marcel Ciolacu will continue to lead the government. It will be a provisional situation for two weeks, it happens everywhere in the world,” the independent candidate replied.
As for the future government, Nicușor Dan says that reforms and courage is needed: “The important discussion is about government after May 18.
In the event that Nicușor Dan arrives at the Cotroceni Palace there are several scenarios: that of a minority government, one consisting of the current coalition or one formed around an extended coalition to be part of all the pro-European parties.
Parliamentary mathematics
A first hypothesis is the one in which the PSD decides to enter the government again. That is, practically to remain. Thus, it could form with the other pro-European parties-PNL, USR, UDMR-a solid majority consisting of 301 parliamentarians. For a government to be validated it needs at least 233 votes.
There is also the option of a minority government, which Nicușor Dan also says “is one of the variants”. In this PNL, USR, UDMR scenario, along with national minorities, with the support of the Social Democrats in the Parliament.
If the PSD will not support this government formula, 122 votes would be lost, and PNL USR and UDMR could not form a majority, only 162 parliamentarians – 179 if national minorities are joined.
This government could receive the investment vote, but it would be extremely vulnerable, not having a parliamentary majority to support it.
The possibility of early elections
The political scientist Cristian Pîrvulescu says that if George Simion would reach the position of head of state, he could put the parties in the face of the option to organize early elections if he refuses to validate the proposed prime minister.
In an interview with Digi24, Simion evoked the possibility of anticipated in the event that Călin Georgescu will not find a parliamentary majority to support his government.
“Two days ago I was telling someone to motivate that the current majority will not remain in the current composition, if the Romanians do not place the candidate in round II. Here I was right (…) I will probably insist on Calin Georgescu to some early elections, but I expect to find 50% plus one of the Parliament (…) I would like to avoid …”
Nicușor Dan wants to work with the current Parliament
About the hypothesis of the early elections, Nicușor Dan said on Wednesday that the future president must work with the Parliament elected at the election on December 1, 2024.
“Romania does not afford early elections, people have been tired of choices, the private environment has been tired of instability, our foreign partners, including economic, are tired of instability. We must have a president to work with the elected Parliament to have a stable government three and a half until the next row of elections.”
“Elections await us at the level of Bucharest”
The political scientist Andrei Taranu says that the scenario in which Nicușor Dan arrives at the Cotroceni Palace would be the most optimistic, even too optimistic.
He also talks about how big parties, PNL and PSD would not be eager to enter the government in times of crisis.
“First of all, it must be said that probably none of the parties that today, in one way or another considered mainstream, except USR, would not be very pleased to reach the government in these times of crisis, political and social,” says Taranu.
He also reminds the fact that if Nicușor Dan wins the presidential race, elections in Bucharest will be organized, and the parties would enter the competition again
“If Nicușor arrives at the Presidency, do not forget that he is waiting for us in a few months or maybe less elections at the level of Bucharest, which will put the parties and in a kind of competition. And how you notice this competition is fierce.”
When it comes to training a government, Professor Andrei Taranu says PSD would prefer to stay in opposition to solve internal problems.
“Most likely it could be a PNL, USR, UDMR and minorities government supported in the PSD Parliament. The PSD most likely does not want to enter the government in any form because it wants to change, modify, reform, quarrel inside,” explains the political scientist.
He says that a party cannot be reformed when he is in government and that around those who are near the money is formed all kinds of groups. For these social-democrats would prefer to stay in the opposition.
“There are already many voices that talk about the permanent opposition of the PSD at least two, three, four years. When you have a minority government, which you support from Parliament you can always blackmail, so that you keep your mayors and presidents of the County Council,” concludes.
