According to the market consensus, PAP Biznes, the Monetary Policy Council will reduce the interest rates of the National Bank of Poland with 50 base points (PB) on Wednesday 7 May, to 5.25 percent. in the case of a reference foot. Over the past one and a half years, the cost of money has been unchanged in our country and the reference rate was 5.75 percent.
The discussion about the possibility of interest rate reductions rapidly gained momentum at the beginning of April, when the NBP president Adam Glapiński unexpectedly informed at a press conference that the MPC had a return in the direction of less restrictive monetary policy.
– One could say jokingly that I come as a pigeon at the head of other pigeons. The Council changes his position to such pigeons, i.e. it expects the situation to change towards lowering interest rates – said Glapiński.
He added that the council could cut the feet in May, depending on the data. He pointed to the possibility of a reduction by 50 pb., Then a break would take place followed by another -50 PB. Glapiński emphasized that the council still has to agree whether such adjustment of the level of the foot will be sufficient, but it will be justified to carry out the entire loosening cycle. He did not rule out that the NBP reference rate (currently 5.75 percent) could go down to 3.50 percent. in 2026
Glapiński's speech surprised observers, because three weeks earlier the President of the NBP reported that the current strong increase in inflation, with still high wage dynamics, increased base inflation, progressing economic recovery and loose fiscal policy do not give any grounds to lower your feet.
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own development
After the President's speech, a lot of statements of the MPP members arrived, who confirmed the market in the belief that the reduction of the feet would actually take place in May. The closer to the end of April, the more clearly the statements from the MPC were clearly pointed out to the prospect of a lower cost of money since May. This was associated with subsequent Makro data, which confirmed the disinflastic picture of the Polish economy.
First of all, which the MPP strongly pointed out, the wage dynamics in March (up to 7.7 percent year on 7.9 percent) were further slowed down, and industrial production surprised again (2.5 percent year -on -year to the expected 3.6 percent). In addition, the Unleashing of the Customs Customs War has worsened the prospects for the growth of the global economy, which can additionally support the inheritance trend of inflation.
The decision to reduce the feet on Wednesday, in the opinion of economists, was sealed last week by the initial reading of inflation for April, which surprised the next month in a row lower than expected (4.2 percent versus 4.9 percent in March).
Voices for a reduction in interest rates
At the end of the month, the hardest declaration on cutting the feet was made by the MPC member Przemysław Litwiniuk. In his opinion, in May there will be conditions for a reduction by 50 pb., And if no one reports such an application, he will submit it himself. He added that another move of the toes down would be possible in autumn, also by 50 PB.
Ludwik Kotecki is also convinced of the need to reduce the restrictiveness of monetary policy. A member of the MPC does not see arguments against lowering the feet in May. – Some may even talk about the correction of the economy through permanent, persistent maintenance of interest rates of 5.75 percent. We have within the range of monetary policy achieved – this is due to all forecasts that the inflationary goal of 2.5 percent. It is available in the first half of 2026. In addition, taking into account that the indicators for February and March are not the best, the next month wage dynamics goes down, I do not see arguments against lowering interest rates today – he pointed out.
He upheld the opinion expressed many times that the feet could be 100 pb in all over 2025. lower than today. – After the April meeting, I absolutely think that there will be a majority for a reduction. I got very strong support after the council and on the council that my colleagues see space for this reduction. The discussion will be about the scale and whether it will be a cycle or a one -time move – added Kotecki.
Even at the beginning of April, Henryk Wnorowski, though he opted for a smaller step than Lithuanian proposed – by 25 PB. – At the beginning it is crucial that the foot reduction is at all and I do not think that it would be a step greater than a standard 25 pb. Personally, I see such premises that in May would allow such a conclusion to support with great calmness and responsibility. As for the next move, I would argue for waiting for the July projection (NBP inflation – PAP), because for a long time we emphasized that the July projection will be very important for deciding the amount of feet – Wnorowski pointed out.
The economist was also more cautious about the further activities of the MPC. “As for the scale of foot reductions throughout 2025, unfortunately I don't think we have a lot of scope here,” he added.
There is no need to wait until July
In the middle of the month, Ireneusz Dąbrowski spoke slightly more conservatively. In his opinion, although the decision to reduce the feet may be made earlier than in July, this month would be a very safe moment for such a step.
– Each earlier carries a certain risk, but maybe the advice will decide on it and there will be a request in this matter. Disinflation processes are faster than assumed in March projection. However, I do not know if they are fast enough for this decision to be made in May. Undoubtedly, however – compared to the previous month – the tendency of the council to reduce interest rates increased – he said.
See also: Installments down even PLN 700. The expert advises if it's a good time for credit
– I suggested that we influence the 4th quarter of 2026, which means that the first discounts could start in the third quarter. But it was with a higher path of inflation. It may be possible to speed up, but for now there is no such certainty – he added.
In turn, in the opinion of Wiesław Janczyk, waiting with cutting feet to the July projection may not be necessary. – I do not think that we can include in a more reliable fiscal policy that shaping energy prices and administrative prices, which strongly affect consumer inflation. Foot reduction by 50 to 100 pb. By the end of the year, I consider at this stage possible to perform – said a member of the MPC. When asked about the perspective of the NBP reference rate to 3.5 percent. In 2026, Janczyk replied that such a plan is currently difficult to implement.
To the “camp” -50 pb. In May, one can also include a member of the MPC Cezary Kochalski – he informed in April that he could consider a reduction in the feet on such a scale.
Gabriela Masłowska, who did not rule out cutting interest rates by 25 PB, spoke more restrained. At the May MPC meeting, if the inflation reading for April is low enough. At the same time, she added that improving inflation prospects are conducive to starting a discussion about loosening of politics. In her opinion, in the whole of 2025 there is space for cutting the feet a total of 100 pb.
Voice against the reductions of the cost of money
Joanna Tyrowicz, who until March this year, traditionally softened her position. (The last available voting results in the MPC, April are closed until mid -May) From November 2023, she submitted an application at each meeting of the Council for a rate of foot by 200 PB.
– Lack of large sources of anxiety from the perspective of monetary policy, but somehow there are no reasons for reductions. Inflation of month to month remains high. If these data are repeated, maybe the time will come for a 5.75 percent foot. Why? The current projection says that the 5.75 percent rate with probability roughly 60 percent It brings us inflation to our goal. The current projection depends to the most of the labor market cooling and (b) non -warning of demand – said Tyrowicz.
