HICP inflation (harmonized consumer price index) in the euro area in April 2025 amounted to 2.2 percent. year on year – EU statistical office Eurostat said on Friday, presenting preliminary data. The reading is slightly higher than forecasts (2.1 percent). While this most commonly used inflation rate is already close to the target of the European Central Bank (it is 2 percent), the measure of base inflation is a bit further from it.
HICP base inflation in April amounted to 2.7 percent according to preliminary data. year on yearthat is, it increased compared to the previous month, when it was 2.4 percent. There is a big negative surprise here, because the result was expected around 2.5 percent. This indicator is important for central banks because it does not take into account the prices of energy, fuels and food, which are mainly independent of their policy. They are set mostly in international markets.
Looking at the main components of inflation in the euro area, preliminary data suggest that Services in April increased by 3.9 percent year on year (compared to 3.5 percent in March), food, alcohol and tobacco by equal to 3 percent (2.9 percent in March), non -energy industrial goods went up by 0.6 percent. (just like in March). Energy in April got cheaper by 3.5 percent. year on year (in March by 1 percent) – according to Eurostat data.
In monthly, the base inflation in April grew by as much as 1 percent, just like March. The main HICP inflation rate in a monthly basis was 0.6 percent, also the same as in March. In a monthly basis, the services increased extremely much, because by 1.3 percent. Food, alcohol and tobacco stood by 0.2 percent, i.e. at a pace close to the EBC purpose (after being tuned). Energy struggled with 2.3 percent compared to March, and industrial goods by 0.4 percent.
In our opinion, inflation data, unlike until recently, will not be crucial for ECB. In the face of geopolitical risks, the attention of decision -makers moved towards concern about the prospects of economic growth.
