The war triggered by the Russians in Ukraine seems endless, and the two camps accuse each other of violating any armistice attempt. The analysts explain, in an analysis for the “truth”, which would be the best peace from the perspective of Romania and what Trump and Europeans should do to ensure that the war ceases.
Trump and Macron can do more together than denied. Photo: AFP
NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte is convinced that Donald Trump can get the cessation of the Ukraine war by negotiating with Russia. This although Europeans, dissatisfied that they are not part of the peace process, deny and claim that we are witnessing Trump's ideas. If the opinions of the experts are divided in this regard, the “truth” appeals to two well-known experts to find out how the US and Europeans could convince Putin to stop the aggression on Ukraine, but especially what kind of peace Romania would mostly agree. A possible response is offered by the political scientist Corneliu Bjola, a diplomacy professor at Oxford University, and the international expert in national defense policies, Hari Bucur Marcu.
The negotiations between the Trump and Russia administration, respectively Ukraine, have not yet led to a spectacular result. Even so, the Secretary General of NATO, the Dutch Mark Rutte, sees the germs of a peace and praises Trump's actions, expressing his conviction that the White House leader can bring peace.
“I notice a situation where we can reach a positive result under the guidance of President Donald Trump”, It was Rutte's message, while in Europe Trump is challenged.
Trump with Putin, just like Chamberlain with Hitler?
The political scientist Corneliu Bjola, professor of diplomatic studies at Oxford University and director of Oxford Digital Diplomacy Research Group, does not agree with Rutte's statement. The Romanian is one of the critics of Trump administration policies and believes that the Americans have failed in the Russians. He believes that the only ones who can achieve peace are Europeans, but not by increasing concessions for the Russian Federation, but rather by a firm attitude in relation to Moscow. In the opinion of Corneliu Bjola, more important is how to reach an armistice and what the conditions will be. In this regard, he compares Trump with former British prime minister Neville Chamberlain.
“As for Rutte's statement, we must remain realistic. The problem is not only if a armistice will be reached, but under what conditions. Neville Chamberlain Flutura, in 1938, the famous paper” Peace in Our Time “, after the München agreement, just for that” peace “to collapse. conflicts ”, says Bjola.
In his opinion, Mark Rutte is duplicitous and recalls that the battle contradicts itself, depending on the audience to which it is addressed.
“As Secretary General of NATO, Mark Rutte cannot publicly contradict Donald Trump's position, although, ten days ago, in Warsaw, Rutte stated that the decision of the Washington Summit from July 2024 – regarding the irreversibility of Ukraine to NATO – remains in force (an idea that Trump's emissary, Steve Witkoff). It is clear that unlike Witkoff (real estate agent), Rutte understands the dangers of a hurried “peace”, built on massive concessions in favor of Russia. Trump seems very determined to conclude the “at any price” conflict, as disastrous as he did in Doha regarding the withdrawal from Afghanistan, and the Kremlin noticed this vulnerability and tries to obtain at the negotiating table what failed on the battlefield “explains the Romanian teacher.
What kind of peace would be desirable for Romania
On the other hand, Europe has an advantage in the next negotiations, but you will have to, says Corneliu Bjola, keep two important red lines and not give up in any way. For Romania, these are essential, and if the Europeans would abdicate from them, we would be in a complicated situation.
“Europe has – and must maintain – two clear red lines: 1) no acknowledgment of the illegally occupied territories. Pandoras with destructive effects for the whole of Eastern Europe.”, Says the teacher.
However, Corneliu Bjola retains his optimism and says that the armistice is still possible, but for this it would be desirable that the Europeans will be involved in negotiations.
Important role for Romania too
“Therefore, yes – we must remain confident that an armistice is possible. But not at any price and not in any conditions. And the inept way in which these negotiations have been led by the American administration so far raises serious problems for Ukraine, for the eastern flank and for Romania directly.”considers Bjola.
Romania, although it does not have special capabilities, can play a fairly important role, after an armistice will be signed, and a “coalition of will”, whatever it is, will be present in Ukraine as a guarantee that the war will not re -objection.
“The British and French support will remain firm, and will become an integral part of a broader strategic debate on the strengthening of a European POL-a direction in which Romania must participate not only symbolic, but actively and with courage. Romania will act as a hub for this.”, Concludes Bjola.
Hari Bucur Marcu is an international expert in national defense policies issues. He was among the people who made it possible to accept Romania in NATO and contributed to the reform of the Romanian armed forces. Last but not least, Hari Bucur Marcu made an immortal name as an expert for the defense policy at the Geneva Center for the democratic control of the armed forces and from the position of academic coordinator of the NATO Studies Center in Bucharest.
Unlike Corneliu Bjola, Hari Bucur Marcu is more optimistic, and his position is closer to that of Mark Rutte.
The correct position in negotiations
“Donald Trump has negotiated correctly, he wants to make peace and he wants this absurd war to end. And he is right, because thousands of people on both sides die, so it is clear that the war must cease.”considers Hari Bucur Marcu.
Donald Trump is more Ukrainian than some could believe and in no case does Moscow concessions. Regarding the situation of Crimea, the Trump administration only realizes that at this moment it is impossible for this peninsula to be recovered by the Ukrainians.
“The Trump administration is realistic. If the Ukrainians were able to get the Russians from there, it would have been done since 2014. Let us not forget that they left Crimea to the Russians without a single fire.”
says the expert.
Trump's strategy in negotiations with Russia can be winning
As for Donald Trump's position, the White House leader would make a smart game and promote a certain strategic ambiguity that manages to surprise in negotiations.
“The Americans have very good negotiators, but it was necessary to approach a tone other than the warrior, to bring Putin to negotiations. You cannot negotiate with someone by insulting it or constantly telling them that he is guilty for everything. Yes, the Russians are invaders and they caused this war, but if you want to achieve results when you negotiate, you adopt another tone, as Trump does. On the other hand, Trump has extended certain sanctions for Russia, which is not talked about. In addition, it threatened Putin, when it seemed to him that Moscow did not respect certain terms. In no way can it be said that Trump is a friend with Putin or that he makes concessions. This is told by the American press that holds with democrats, and hence the idea was taken over by Europeans. ”says Hari Bucur Marcu.
As for Romania, things are clear. The US and Trump will not abandon their allies and will not abandon Europe, even if they resize their presence on the continent.
“There are false fears in some European capitals that Trump leaves Europe for Russia, but it is a big stupidity. Not to mention that. Be closer to Trump and support Americans in negotiations, not permanently criticize what Trump's negotiators do. Hari Bucur Marcu argues.
