The aging process of Polish society has been going on continuously for several decades. One of the main factors of this trend is low natural increase. As indicated by prof. Tomasz Zdrojewski, head of the Prevention and Didactics Department of the Medical University of Gdańsk, in 1955 the median age in Poland was only 25.2 years. At that time, Poland was still a young country: the number of inhabitants exceeded 27 million, and there were 3.56 child to the average family. At that time, Poland was 19th in the world in terms of population.
“In 1990, the median century increased to 31.4 years, and the average number of children in the family decreased to two” – notes the expert. Despite this increase in the middle age, the Polish population grew, reaching 38 million inhabitants. Over the next three decades, the population remained at a similar level, but recent years have brought decreases.
There are fewer and fewer of us
The preliminary data of the Central Statistical Office shows that at the end of 2024 the number of Polish inhabitants was about 37.5 million. Currently, in the global ranking of population we occupy 41. A downward trend has been maintaining since 2012and since 2013, the natural increase has been negative – it accelerates depopulation.
At the same time, the median age is systematically growing. Worlddata data indicate that in 2025 it reached 42.9 years. The average number of children per family is currently 1.31.
Poland occupies the 33rd place in the world in this respect. Slovakia (Mediana 42.8) and Canada (42.6) are behind us, while the Czech Republic (44.2), Switzerland (44.2) and Hungary (44.8) are in front of us. The highest median of the age was recorded in Monaco (56.9 years), Japan (49.9) and in Italy (48.4).
The average median age for the whole world is currently 31 years, while in the European Union he almost reaches 45 years. In the last decade, from 2014 to 2024, In the EU, the median age increased by an average of 2.2 years. However, there are large differences between member countries – from 39.4 to 48.4 years.
Different countries age at different pace: over the past 10 years, the greatest acceleration of median growth has been recorded in Greece, Italy, Portugal and Slovakia – an increase of 4 years. Next in order are Cyprus, Spain and Poland, where the median increased by 3.8 years.
Demographic forecasts for Poland are not optimistic
According to the analyzes of prof. Zdrojewski Until 2050, the median age in our country may be 51.8 years. At the same time, the population, while maintaining current trends, can fall to 32 million inhabitants, which would move us to the 59th place in the world.
Is Poland dying out? The latest GUS data show that the population in our country at the end of the first quarter of 2025 decreased by 158 thousand. year on year and amounted to 37.437 million. Compared to the end of 2024, the number of inhabitants fell by over 52 thousand.
The rate of real population defect in the first three months of the year was -0.14 percent. This means that for every 10,000 There were 14 people – three more than three more than in the same period of 2024.
Preliminary data also show that in the first quarter of 2025 approx. 58 thousand were registered. live births, or over 6,000 less than a year ago.
The natural increase in Poland is still negative – In the first quarter of 2025 it amounted to -54.5 thousand
