Witold Jurasz: Donald Trump can become a “serial losing”
The first suggests that the Americans, seeing not to bring peace, in fact, they consciously want to lead to the defeat of the next round of conversations and at the same time blame the defeat of Wołodymyr Zelnski. This solution would mean the abdication of the United States with the role of the world leader, which has always been the goal of Vladimir Putin. The White House with its announcements in a sense encourages the Kremlin to sharpen his demands enough so that they become unacceptable by Kiev. Russia will win, although the continuation of the war, due to the worse economic situation, does not pay off at all.
If the Americans bluff and do not intend to abandon conversations, then Trump is still a losing, but for another reason. The media relationship shows that Washington barely starting a peaceful process is ready to give Moscow a legal recognition of Crimea and the abolition of sanctions. In other words, the USA in exchange for little is ready to give back a lot. Russia, according to their negotiation method, will treat concessions in subsequent rounds of conversations as a starting point, not the purpose of negotiating.
Trump can become a “serial losing”
If you assume for a change that the talks will be successful and the war will stop rolling for some time, Americans also go out for at least two reasons.
Unlike most Polish commentators, I consistently believe that the Finnish script, i.e. one in which Ukraine loses part of the territory, but maintains sovereignty and independence, is in fact the success of Kiev and the West. In my opinion, the durability of the room does not depend on whether the border runs in this or elsewhere, but whether the peace (or lack of war) is accompanied by real safety guarantees for Ukraine and maintaining at least part of the sanctions.
The problem is that the Americans have already hung a white flag on sanctions, and in the second (if you believe the spokesman of Vladimir Putin, who rejected the possibility of dislocation of NATO forces in Ukraine) did not get anything. In other words, in such a scenario it would turn out that Washington would negotiate a room without any guarantees of its durability and paid a high price for it.
However, Americans may turn out to be the biggest losers if the war lasted, but it would turn out that Ukraine with the help of Europe is able to continue defending itself. The above is not certain, but it is not excluded at all. Such a scenario would be quite beneficial for Poland. First of all, it would mean further – profitable from our point of view – bleeding the Russians and bringing them closer to the economic crisis, which would be desirable from our perspective. The growing Désintéressement of the United States would turn out to be a problem, and not – as we often think – a disaster. If it turned out that as a continent we manage without the USA, Washington would theoretically obtain what he was striving for. In fact, however, he would be lost.
If we attach the chaos of Trump's commercial policy to the above picture, a decrease in shares on the American stock exchange and a simultaneous decrease in the profitability of American bonds and the dismissal of the United States with almost all allies, Trump may not be, as he claimed, a serial winner, but a serial losing.
