Trump wants to put us on the face. Putin rubs his hands. “We have no strengths”
Trump's plan includes seven points – informs the British “The Telegraph”. He assumes, among others Donating Russia Crimea and leaving Ukraine without a guarantee of US security. We are also talking about the new stage of cooperation between Americans and the Russians.
And at the thought of her in the Kremlin, champagne traffic jams shoot, because the promises to Kiev are very vague, and Europe unprepared for subsequent scenarios will have to make up for the lessons in accelerated mode. Experts also forecast the next steps of the American president, which can transfer a spell of bitterness and lead to a dispute with Europe. “We don't have any advantages,” analysts argue.
Here Trump's planabout which “Axios” was the first to inform:
- The United States officially agree to consider Crimea as Russian;
- They want to tolerate the occupation through Russia of territories in eastern Ukraine, unless it goes further:
- Only for freezing the war, sanctions and resumed commercial relations with Moscow are to be abolished
What will Ukraine receive in return? Only unclear promises. Trump's document mentions “security guarantees” and “help in reconstruction”, but does not specify who is to provide them and how. In addition, as planned Ukraine can never become a NATO member.
– This is a terrible agreement – tells the daily “Bild” a military expert and author of the bestseller prof. Carlo Masala (Bundeswehr University in Munich). “Donald Trump gives Russia almost everything Putin wants,” he adds.
– This is not a contract at all, it is a proposal for the surrender of Ukraine – says the US expert prof. Thomas Jaeger (University of Cologne) in an interview with the German newspaper. “The alleged” conversations “of the US served Putin only as a tool of fighting in the war,” he assesses.
Suddenly, matters appeared on the table that had never been mentioned before (e.g. abolishing sanctions). And finally Putin forced Trump to demand the capitulation of Ukraine.
What concessions must Russia make?
– The only thing that can be interpreted with some good will as a concession is the fact that the US is to operate the nuclear power plant in Zaporozhye – the terms of the contract are not clear – notes prof. Masala.
– There is not a single point where Russia was under US pressure – explains prof. Jaeger. The Trump's document is about “reparations” or help in the reconstruction of Ukraine, but there is It is very unlikely that Russia would agree. On the contrary, Putin waved his hand to abolish Western sanctions and probably offered the US frozen Russian assets.
What does this contract mean for Germany?
– We don't have any advantages in this matter. There is nothing else for us to do but support every decision of Ukraine. If Zelanski stays with his position that he would not give up Crimea, we should support him in this – believes prof. Masala.
And the Chief of Strategic Staff of NATO was experienced, Stefanie Babst tells “Bild” that “the fact that the government in Washington was so clearly on Putin's side, prevents you from taking any meaningful conversations about the suspension of weapons.” – Europeans would have to stop this cycle and insist on direct negotiations with Moscow with Ukraine – he adds.
It is worth adding that Donald Trump presented Ukraine and Russia the “final offer” of the end of the war.
What happens if the contract does not take place?
You have to expect this, the experts say.
– Donbas is a damaged area, so Ukraine's territorial concessions are still possible. But she will not be able to give up Crimea, which is crucial for her – says Masala. President Wołodymyr Zełenski said on Tuesday evening in Kiev that “there is nothing to talk about”. “This is incompatible with our constitution,” he emphasized.
– This means that Trump will probably withdraw from negotiations and it should be expected that he will again stop military assistance for Ukraine – explains prof. Masala.
Prof. Jaeger believes that it was from the beginning that Putin's “target” from the USA.
The President of Ukraine Wołodymyr Zelnski will not be able to accept Trump's “contract”.
Who will help Ukraine then?
– Support for Ukraine will have to come mainly from Europeans – says prof. Jaeger.
– We are not able to replace the patriot -directed missiles, and our possibilities of replacing the satellite reconnaissance system are limited – warns prof. Masala.
Will Russia calm down after the implementation of Trump's plan?
Experts and observers are afraid that they are not. – Rewarding the aggressor will only lead to even more aggressive actions – says even American politician Nikki Haley from the Republican Trump party.
Analysts from the Think Tank “Institute for the Study of War” (ISW) write that “the Kremlin will probably use any suspension of weapons based on a limitation of weapons to Ukraine by the United States to prepare for re -aggression.”
Trump attacks Zelanski
On Wednesday evening, US President Trump attacked the President of Ukraine on his “Truth Social” social networking site. “There is nothing to brag about! Ukraine's situation is catastrophic – it can have peace or fight three more years before it loses the whole country.”
The reason was Zelanski's statement in the American daily The Wall Street Journal “that” Ukraine would not recognize the occupation of Crimea “and that” there is nothing to discuss here. ” The Ukrainian Peninserp has been occupied by the Russians since 2014.
