Why fight Chinese mercenaries in Ukraine? The strange movements on the front that should be thoughtful. “We can have a destructive war”

Fears that China would prepare to invade Taiwan are reinforced, in the opinion of some American analysts, that over 100 Chinese mercenaries would fight in the Ukraine on the part of the Russians. However, it seems questionable if China would need the experience of a few mercenaries to attack Taiwan, in a war that would rather be at sea and would not look like that of Ukraine.

China sent her war vessels around Taiwan Photo: Profimedia

The war in Ukraine is far from over, despite the plans and hopes of the last period. Moreover, there is a fear that in parallel with this war we could have two other major conflicts, which could be transformed into a war, maybe even a world conflagration.

The Middle East and the Indo-Pacific area would be the perfect candidates in this regard. In the strip of Gaza, the Palestinians and the Israelis accuse each other and do not pass a day without firearms, and in East Asia the situation is even more complicated. With an anti-unionist president, Taiwan does not want to hear a unification with China. Instead, Beijing is said to be a peaceful, but inevitable reunification. However, numerous experts believe that China is already preparing to invade the island she considers rebellious.

Pros and cons of a Chinese invasion in Taiwan

The fears of some analysts are fueled by the fact that over 100 Chinese mercenaries are fighting on Russia in the war with Ukraine. A good opportunity for some of the analysts consulted by The Hill to claim that Beijing would actually prepare to invade Taiwan.

Also, the President of Ukraine, Volodimir Zelenski, estimated on the basis of Ukrainian secret services that 155 Chinese would fight on Russia, and Kiev forces captured two of them. Instead, Reuters mentions that at the official level, the US government believes that these soldiers are mercenaries and that they would not be related to the army of China. Even so, Reuters notes that several Chinese officers would have made visits near the Russian front line to learn war tactics. China, who declared a partnership “without limits” with Russia and refrained from criticizing Ukraine's large -scale invasion in 2022, qualified Zelenski's remarks and said that China is not part of the war. For their part, American officials told Reuters, subject to anonymity that Chinese fighters in Ukraine seem to have minimal training and have no visible impact on Russia's military operations.

It is no less true that there are thousands of foreign mercenaries in Ukraine, without their countries. “Truth” wrote about this topic wide. Volunteers from Western countries, including the US, are fighting for Ukraine since the beginning of the war, and North Korea has held over 12,000 soldiers to support Russian forces, Reuters informed.

On the other hand, China initiated large military maneuvers around Taiwan at the beginning of April, presented as a warning for those who are advancing for the island's independence. These actions took place a few weeks after President Taiwanese William Lai had an extremely critical speech against Beijing.

Experts consulted by “Adevărul” do not exclude an attack on China on Taiwan. However, from the beginning it is more than obvious that the Chinese should attack this island at sea, and from this perspective the hypothetical war would not look at the one in Ukraine.

“The Chinese should know what the risks are”

Among those who believe that a Chinese attack on Taiwan is not excluded is Hari Bucur Marcu. Known expert in risk assessment, security threats and crisis management and conflict resolution, Hari Bucur Marcu was involved in reforming the Romanian army to make it compatible with NATO. He was an expert for the defense policy at the Geneva Center for the Democratic Control of the Armed Forces and academic coordinator of the NATO Studies Center in Bucharest. With a serious experience in the field, he draws attention to the fact that China is unpredictable.

“China and the United States are two nuclear powers that do not even need nuclear armament to impose their military power anywhere in the world. Most likely, China would like to put their hands on Taiwan, but in principle they would like to do it peacefully. In the area would be quiet”Says Hari Bucur Marcu.

In his opinion, the United States would jump to support the ally, and the Sino-American war would be one of proportions. However, Chinese military experts and strategies would take into account the details that would risk a destroying war with the United States, and this would not be in favor of their country.

“When it comes to two super powers, because unlike Russia, China and especially the United States are super powers, it does not come so easily in a war. Of course, the Americans are superior at this time in all the chapters, and the Chinese know this. And I know the Americans fight differently than the Ukrainians do. And that America has sophisticated weapons, which he has not sent to Ukraine. It would be a destructive war, but I repeat, it would not be in favor of anyone. China can and will most likely have patience to get on other Taiwan ways if it is to be for them”, Says the expert.

Taiwan Relations Act, the law that would force Americans to defend Taiwan

Taiwan's issue is sensitive to the United States. Since 1979 there has been Taiwan Relations Act, a law adopted by the Congress of the United States, by which Washington undertakes to provide military assistance to Taiwan in case of aggression. This would mean that the United States of America, regardless of the administration, would be forced to intervene directly with troops and military technique to defend them on the islands. In addition, Americans have serious investments in Taiwan, and the production of chips there is essential to the US.

The historian Armand Goșu does not exclude a great war in Indo-Pacific. In his opinion, Donald Trump's arrival in power in the United States has brought even more unpredictability to the world. On the other hand, China is close to Russia, but so far it has stood and looked at the Ukraine war, discreetly helping Putin.

“” No one can know exactly what will follow, we live in complicated and difficult to anticipate times. It is true that there is a risk to burst there, in the Pacific, a destructive war, which, who knows, can be extended at any time. destroyer ”says Goșu.

Instead, Armand Goșu is not at all convinced that the United States, under Donald Trump, would immediately jump to help his allies.

“We see Trump's position and Americans.says Armand Goșu.