The World Bank has lowered the Polish GDP growth forecast

The forecast of Poland's economic growth in 2025 was reduced to 3.2 percent, and on 2026 to 3 percent. – results from the World Bank report. In his opinion, maintaining a stable growth rate of the economies of the region of Europe and Central Asia is difficult, among others through global uncertainty.

In the report published on Wednesday, the World Bank estimated that economic growth in developing economies of regions Europe and Central Asia It can slow down in 2025-2026 to 2.5 percent. This is to be a weaker external demand and slowdown in Russia.

“Central Asia It will probably remain the fastest growing part of the region in this and next year, even with a reduced growth forecast to 4.7 percent. in the years 2025-26 ” – the experts emphasized. They added that the slowdown of this region is caused by a slower growth rate of the oil sector in Kazakhstan, lower exports and normalization of the volume of international monetary messages.

In turn, in the region Southern Caucasus The increase is to amount to an average of 3.5 percent. In these years, because the effects of commercial brokerage and the influx of labor and capital “are to expire. “Uncertainty around commercial policy, increased trade barriers and their impact on supply chains in the euro area will make the economic reflection in other countries of the region difficult” – assessed the World Bank. He added that in the Western Balkans this increase can slow down to 3.4 percent. In the years 2025-2026, and in Central Europe slightly accelerate to 2.7 percent.

IN Russia It is to slow down to 1.3 percent, and in Turkey Accelerate to 3.3 percent, thus remaining below the levels of a long -term trend due to poor external demand and “ongoing process of restoring economic balance”. Growth in Ukraine can slow down to 2 percent. in 2025 – the bank added.

In the assessment of bank analysts, the dynamic private sector plays an important role in a demanding international environment. According to them, your region's countries should invest in innovations, take reforms supporting young companies, deepen financial markets and increase research and development expenditure. “In order for medium income countries from the region of Europe and Central Asia to achieve the status of high income countries, it is necessary to dynamize their economies,” they pointed out.

They pointed out that countries that have high income per capita achieved this thanks to the “dynamic sector of enterprises and innovations.” They added that they should maintain their growth by using technology, knowledge and capital to increase productivity.

The main economist of the World Bank cited in the report on the region of Europe and Central Asia Ivailo Izvorski assessed that innovations and experiments are “key factors to increase productivity and the condition of achieving and maintaining the status of a high -income country.” “Medium income countries in the region can reach the status of high income countries if their companies are growing, competing and if they are innovative. Each country has its own path to revive growth, but innovation support and a dynamic private sector are necessary for this.” – noted Izvorski.

The authors of the report believe that instead of investing in the small and medium -sized enterprise sector, you need to invest in young and innovative companies, because “they generate jobs.” This approach – as they emphasized – should be supported by the improvement of financing availability especially by long -term capital and high risk, because the region currently does not have sufficient availability of this capital.

“Strengthening competitiveness is crucial for the appearance of dynamic companies. The region has too many small companies with low productivity and too few large companies, without taking into account the country controlled by the state, which often dominate the market and weaken the dynamism of the enterprise sector,” experts noted. According to them, policies supporting research and development are also needed to “make enterprises more productive and innovative”.

Also necessary – in the opinion of the World Bank – is investing in human capital. This is to attract and maintain highly qualified employees and entrepreneurs, but also to create opportunities to develop skills by training.

The World Bank estimates that last year The increase in the region reached about 3.6 percent. According to the bank, this is due to, among others growing private consumption, an increase in real wages and a larger volume taken by loan consumers. “These factors compensated for weaker external demand caused by slow growth in the European Union,” he pointed out.

In turn, a faster rate of increasing food and services prices was to translate into a higher inflation, whose annual indicator was – as bank experts said – 5 percent. In February 2025, compared to 3.6 percent In mid -2024, “a recent increase in inflation prompted several central banks in the region to increase interest rates or delay their reductions,” they noted. (PAP)

JLS/ DRAG/