Image from the photo battlefield: Twitter – X
It seems like no period of the three years and more of war in Ukraine is richer in contradictions than that at the end of this spring.
Discussions about peace and war are in parallel.
It is said that the balance of the conflict was unbalanced in favor of Russia, but at the same time, the Russian soldiers only go a few hundred meters, here and there, where there are too few Ukrainian drones stop them.
The US threatens every day that he takes his strategic toys and leaves, but he cannot do it because he has just revealed in his own press that the war was, from his beginning, and Washington, could even be won if the Ukrainian generals had executed as they ordered what they ordered.
Europe threatens that she will do what the US seems to have no energy to support, Brussels now promoting her own struggle for principles and democracy in the Ukrainian steppe, initiating white defense strategies and books, with the confidence that everything is a problem of money, as many, and unity in speeches, Cuget and feeling.
It was also a Easter armistice, generally respected, except for about 2000 violations of the Russian side (Ukrainians) and about 4000 violations of the Ukrainian side (says the Russians).
The struggles have reassembled with the same fierce, but also restarted the engines, it is not much, in a short time we will know.
President Trump has announced that in a few days he will give us the solution.
It will be accepted or not, that does not depend on it, America cannot solve them all, does it? If Russia and Ukraine still want to punch, that's it, Washington can no longer be an arbitrator, he will leave the ring.
Said of Secretary of State Marco Rubio: “The war in Ukraine is a terrible thing, but it is not our war … so we have to establish very quickly now, and talk about a matter of days, if [pacea] It is or not feasible … If it is, we will continue to get involved. If it is not, then we have other priorities to focus on. ”
Photo: Twitter – X
If we go to the solution of the new representative of Ukraine at the UN, the former ambassador to Berlin in the first period of the war, Andrii Melnik (the one who made a famous Chancellor Scholz with the expression “offended sausage”), the exit of the US equation can easily compensate if Germany transfers 30% of its equipment.
There is also a time horizon, the year 2029, if Berlin does, until then, what the future Ukrainian ambassador suggests to the UN, Kiev could be quieter in terms of war result.
To make things even clearer, Mr. Melnik detailing, in a letter published in Die Welt, what Germany's new Chancellor, Friedrich Merz, and not only him:
– to transfer Ukraine 45 Eurofighter aircraft and 30 tornado, 25 NH90 fight helicopters, 15 Europter Tiger helicopters, 100 Leopard 2 tanks, 115 Puma combat vehicles, 130 MARDER combat vehicles, 20 Mars – II rocket launchers, 130 FUCHS armored vehicles;
– to allocate 0.5% of Ukrainian armed forces to Germany, 86 billion euros, to be accurate, until 2029. It would be good if the Bundestag would legislate, to be the clear perspective;
– It would be natural as the EU, maybe and G7, to allocate the same percentage of the common GDP, ie about 550 billion euros, also for four years, all Ukrainian armed forces;
–
200 billion euros from Russia's frozen funds to be transferred as well as Ukraine, and Kiev to be guaranteed to EU entry (in 2029 fixed, the ambassador says) and NATO (when it can be, better earlier than later);
and, with your will, the last point on the list
– To transfer 150 Taurus missiles to Ukraine, with everything they need for their good use.
The Ukrainian diplomat also writes that he personally is a realistic, which is why his requests may have the same treatment as during the Scholz Chancellor, but he concludes, however, with a biblical, encouraging quote: “The beasts of your plows turn them into swords and baskets, in spears! The weak to say, 'I'm strong!'” Joel 3:10.
Because it is Christian to believe in miracles, and Easter period is the most appropriate for this approach to the future.
If we are to take us after Mr. Melnik, the wars also need miracles to end with the victory of the good.
Photo: Twitter / X
Spring, once at 2000 years, yes, miracles are happening, but in the rest of the time, peace and war are rather raw events, in which a lot of blood is scattered and much suffering is gathered.
And peace, when it comes, is not even what this word should mean, something clear, tangible, all of a biblical quote: “You will hear wars and wars. You see not to worry, for these things must happen.” Matthew 24: 6.
But, perhaps, we will not have to wait for the decision of the future Chancellor of Germany to know what perspective will be shown to us for the next period.
Only tomorrow is not tomorrow, the solution is in an oval office, we will soon find out what and with the end of the Ukraine war.
Until the peace is unraveled to post a bit together with the current geo-political realities:
– Europe / European Union believes that security is a problem of money and planning, so it has quickly issued a series of plans with Horizon 2030 and with funds to a trillion, for now. Soldiers, tanks, airplanes are also looking for a transatlantic partner to provide logistics and information. The rest is simple, on paper;
– The US would do anything to get rid of the conflict in Ukraine, especially now, when the other “release”, with rates and sanctions for the rest of the world, goes two steps forward and one back. But it has to be an honorable exit from this war, I said this, not to make comparisons with previous unpleasant experiences. It would be good, so, preventively, a escalation, but it is not known how the “partner” of dialogue reacts, especially when he celebrates, over two weeks, 80 years since his victory over Nazi Germany. Until recently, it was our victory, in the meantime we re -evaluated, each had their own war and their own front. There will also be a parade in the red market, there will be a guest from Beijing, it is not good to scratch the wild when not the case, we solve after …;
– Russia is not in a hurry. The pivoting to the east also brought another dimension of time, as if extracted from a teaching of Sun Tzu: “The value of time is to be shortly before your opponent, which offers a greater advantage than the higher herds or the more numerous resources.” And if you have some and others, the calendar helps you, the opponent is safe in a complicated position;
– During this time, Ukraine remains between the Russian hammer and the American Nicovala, although this was not the understanding when, on the maidan of the Ukrainian capital, the west was chosen. The only argument that Kiev has to keep the US engaged in this conflict, even only at its conclusion, remained the minerals hidden under the chernozem in the central and eastern areas of the country, so they also located near the front, which makes them a hard fruit. An always postponed contract could be signed during this period, after which, perhaps, an armistice, after which, perhaps, even a peace.
Finally, let's go back to the “Last Peace Offer of the Trump Administration”, how, pompous, a probable list of proposals made to Russia by American negotiators is presented.
The list is published even by Ukrainian publications, which shows that Tabu topics have also started to be addressed in the Kiev press.
It is also an indicator that the negotiations have come near the identification of solutions, impossible until yesterday.
Of these proposals, only a few:
Russia receives:
– the “Jure” recognition of Crimea as a Russian territory;
– the “de facto” recognition of Russia's control over the occupied territories;
– lifting the sanctions imposed after 2014;
– cooperation with the US in the energy and industrial fields;
– Ukraine will not become a NATO member.
Ukraine receives:
– the prospect of becoming an EU member;
– security guarantees from a group of states (without US);
– the territories occupied by Russia in the Kharkov region;
– free circulation on the Nipu River, front line currently on its lower course;
– Support for reconstruction, not for now what funds.
Proposals also include two points of economic nature:
– crossing the nuclear power plant from Zaporojie under US management;
– I agree between the US and Ukraine for the exploitation of rare minerals, potentially signed in the next period.
What appears in newspaper pages does not fit, however, very rarely with what is happening in the negotiation halls.
President Zelenski also stated that he received nothing from the American side, and the discussion about Crimea remains as he writes in the Ukrainian Constitution, meaning no.
So we are again at the starting point, the negotiations scheduled in London, in the US format, the United Kingdom, France, Germany and Ukraine are postponed.
And from the front begins to hear the falling sound of the artillery again.
Bum, bum, bum …
