It is hard not to resist the impression that since Donald Trump again began to perform the office of the US president, almost every day the behavior of financial markets has been subordinated only to his actions or statements. After the Easter break, the WSE continued to increase from the previous week, driven by an increasingly weaker dollar and, above all, the return of the topic of truce in Ukraine, in both cases caused by the US President.
Even before Easter, Donald Trump increased market fears that he could look for a way to quickly replace the Fed president. In addition, he warned that the American economy could slow down if the Fed does not reduce interest rates. As a result, the dollar hit even more, and in the couple with the zloty he was the cheapest in nearly 4 years.
On the other hand, on Sunday (on Monday there was no session on the WSE) he said that he was counting on reaching an agreement between Ukraine and Russia this week, which again warmed up the emotions of investors on the Vistula. However, one should remember about the words of the Secretary of State Marco Rubio, who in a somewhat gloomy way announced that the United States within a few days would give up attempts to bring peace between Russia and Ukraine, if there are no signals that the agreement in this matter is to be achieved.
It seems that this topic with the weakening dollar was played on Tuesday by investors on the WSE, while in Europe the most of the day was dominated by declines after a terrible session at Wall Street on Monday, translated by the conflict on the Trump-Powell line and fears about the condition of the economy. In the background there could also be another salvo of the customs war, this time fired according to “FT” on the part of the Chinese capital market. On the macro front, the remuneration data in Poland confirmed that the cutting rates that will be useful to limping industry will be closer to cutting.
Thus, behind us is a strong session supported by a reflection at Wall Street after starting trade. WIG20 gained 2.15 percent And he was the strongest index in Europe. WIG was higher by 2.06 percent MWIG40 was close to the historic peak, which at the end of the day gained 1.84 percent. The record was broken by the Small Companies index, which scored 27,264.25 points, where he finished the session after an increase of 0.79 percent. Turnover on the wide market amounted to PLN 2.15 billion, of which PLN 1.8 billion concerned companies from WIG20.
“I would explain the strength of the Polish stock exchange with the weakness of the dollar to Zloty. USD/PLN was today at around 3.7042, which is the lowest since May 2021. In addition, the retreat of investors from American assets helps, because this capital flows somewhere else” – Konrad Ryczko, an analyst and broker DM BOŚ, told PAP.
“Yesterday we had large declines in the States and the dollar weakened because Trump opened a new front, this time in the face of the independence of the fed and Powell, and the markets do not like very much when someone boasts at central banks” – he added. According to Konrad Ryczko, the Warsaw Stock Exchange is also helped by Trump's Sunday suggestion about the possibility of concluding an agreement between Ukraine and Russia.
In WIG20, again a very strong session of banks, whose entire WIG-Banki index gained 2.72 percent. In turn, in WIG20, Santander's (6.06 percent) and mBank (3.9 percent) increased the most. State Treasury companies, such as Orlen (3.58 percent), PGE (3.41 percent), KGHM (2.45 percent) and “state” banks were clearly growing. In the whole WIG20 under the line there was only a CCC course (-1 percent), for which the value was the third inheritance session in a row. The Pepco exchange rate (3.59 percent) continues to reflect, and the Dino exchange rate (2.28 percent) set a new closing record of PLN 519.20, valuing the entire company at nearly PLN 51 billion.
In the wide market, it was impossible to fail the growth of the Boryszew Group (39.57 percent), whose management on Friday, on the occasion of the results for 2024, stated that the company is active in the armaments area, plans to produce bowl bowls for rifle shells, and perhaps the scales themselves – reported Konrad Ryczko from DM BOŚ. Speculation about possible production for the arms industry is a hot topic, which has recently warmed the Rafako course (18.48 percent). After Tuesday's increases, the course has been at most for over 2 years, and from April 14 it has already gained 258 percent.
Return to the topic of truce in Ukraine raised the quotations of local companies listed on the WSE. Subindex WIG Ukraine, increased by 11.59 percent These companies were on the list of the most growing entities on the WSE, including Coal Energy (31.7 percent), KSG Agro (10.15 percent), Agroton (10.24 percent) and Milkiland (17.79 percent).
On the other hand, there was a discount of biotechnological bioceltiks (-10.08 percent), which later shifted the dates of work on candidates for animal medicinal products. The Polish photovoltaic group (-17.5 percent) was most powerful, but without new messages in ESPI. Let us remind you that her course this year is still in the plus of about 130 percent, especially after increases from the turn of March and April.
Michał Kubicki
