According to the new economic forecasts of the IMF, which are published twice a year, economic growth in the US will be 1.8 percent this year, i.e. 0.9 pp less than estimated in January. Growth forecasts for other main economies have also been corrected down: growth in the euro area dropped by 0.2 pp, and in China by 0.6 pp
The latest forecast of the IMF gives more ammunition of Washington's commercial policy critics who claim that the United States will be the largest loser in the trading war.
Mexico was the only large economy that recorded a sharp discount, with a negative correction by 1.7 pp per 2025.
The IMF pointed out that the indicators of the mood of consumer, enterprises and investors began to flash red since the US administration introduced a tariff package on “Liberation Day” on April 2. “At the beginning of the year, the moods were optimistic, but recently they have changed to much more pessimistic as the uncertainty and announcement of new duties were increased” – we read in the report.
The fund reduced the economic growth forecast for all economies developed to 1.4 percent. This year from 1.9 percent In the last quarterly update of the forecast in January. For the whole world, the fund currently provides an increase of only 2.8 percent. This year, compared to 3.3 percent Three months ago.
Despite the lowering of forecasts, it is expecting that the United States will continue to achieve better results than the euro area. According to estimates, the currency area will increase by 0.8 percent. in 2025 and 1.2 percent in 2026 Germany, the largest economy of the euro area, this year will once again be in stagnationin 2026, an increase of up to 0.9 percent is expected to take place. The IMF emphasizes that Berlin's decision to loosen fiscal rules, as well as an increase in wages, will help to drive the growth next year.
In China, the combination of slowdown on the real estate market, as well as domestic imbalances in exports, contributed to the growing economic difficulties. Customs tariffs “disproportionately” hurt the Asian economyaccording to the IMF, which notes that the restoration of balance towards a larger domestic consumer demand is delayed.
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In addition to damage to individual economies, multilateral The lender also warns against a potential breakdown on financial markets, which remain unstable from April 2. The main stock indexes, primarily in the United States, are far below the level before the “day of liberation”. They can fall even lower. The dollar also noted a decrease in value in relation to other main currencies, which is another warning signal.
“It is usually expected that the American dollar is strengthened if the financial conditions deteriorate rapidly,” we read in the report. “But The international currency system can experience a sudden resetwith potentially serious consequences for the dollar as his main pillar. “
The lender warned against the potential social consequences of the further breakup of the economic order, with populations already feeling the effects of recent inflation and the crisis of the costs of maintenance that followed it, are threatened with “polarization and social unrest”.
