Data on remuneration for March confirms the weakening wage pressure, and thus, they fit into the Narracy of the MPC with the space for reduction of interest rates in May. It is between other data on the dynamics of remuneration that NBP President Adam Glapiński made the conclusion of a possible cut. It is worth noting, however, that the average wages in enterprises for the first time exceeded 9,000. PLN gross.
Average salary in large non -financial enterprises In March 2025 it amounted to PLN 9055.92 gross And it was 7.7% higher than last year. It was the fourth month in a row of weakening wage dynamics and at the same time the lowest increase in over four years. For the first time in history, the average gross salary in the enterprise sector also exceeded the level of 9,000. zloty.
Economists were counting on the fact that from month to month an annual wage increase in the enterprise sector would inhibit, and among others from the dynamometer scale, the president of the NBP Adam Glapiński, at the last press conference after the MPC meeting, when he introduced himself as a pigeon at the head of pigeons, made the scale of a possible reduction in percentage in May.
“If the data is repeated that wages are growing more slowly, inflation indicators will be smaller (…) I do not rule out that I will submit such a application for a reduction in the feet in May,” said the head of the NBP. Chairman of the MPC, at the same time he mentioned pay pressure as one of the three main profinflative factors in addition to economic recovery and loose fiscal policy of the government.
In real terms, wages have been increasing for 18 months
It seems that the wage pressure is slowly disappearing and in the fourth subsequent reading in a row shows that this may be a clear trend. The forecasts assumed an increase in wages by 7.7%year -on -year, after the pay in February increased by 7.9%, in January by 9.2%, and in December by 9.8%. In November last year, we had two -digit dynamics of salary growth for the last time. After with little exceptions, wages at a double -digit rate grew from the end of 2021.
It is also worth noting that the increase in wages in large companies will slow down not only in nominal terms, but also in real terms. After taking into account the March inflation of CPI (which CSO estimated at 4.9 %) the real increase in the “national average” amounted to 2.67 %. This is the smallest increase since September 2023.
“Wage dynamics in March almost stable 7.7% y/y compared to 7.9% in February. Also a stable low pay momentum is a strong argument for a reduction in feet in May, for which we think the MPC is preparing,” wrote analysts from Bank Pekao.
“A slowing down rate of salary growth, lower than expected by NBP Basic inflation, weaker US $ and relatively low oil prices are arguments for cutting the NBP feet in May” – emphasized experts from ING.
The average gross wage in Poland 🇵🇱 in companies (9+) for the first time in history exceeded 9⃣ thous. PLN and is the highest in history ➡️ 9055.92 PLN.
And in October 2021, the average salary was below 6⃣ thousand. zloty. Over the past 3.5 years, wages in Poland have increased by 53%📈 pic.twitter.com/2imlksripvv
– Macronext (@MacronextCom) April 22, 2025
The highest national average, but this is only statistics
The average salary in large non -financial companies is just one of the payroll indicators in the Polish economy. However, it does not include data, among others from public administration, education, healthcare and microfirm. Which means that this statistics applies to less than 40% of those working.
It is different with the median and the decile distribution of earnings covering the national economy sector, also with the public sector and smaller companies. However, these data are published with a six -month delay. However, we know that the wage of pay for October 2024 amounted to PLN 6,856.75 gross, i.e. PLN 5 004.19 net. Let us demonstrately state that today's category – the average salary in the enterprise sector – in October 2024 was 8316.57 gross.
Thus, the October median (in other words: central value) of remuneration in Poland was over 20% lower than the average salary in the enterprise sector. This difference has remained for years, so it can be assumed that the median wages in the national economy in the previous month were about 20% lower than the reported average salary.
Employment again smaller
The Central Statistical Office also stated that in March the average employment in the enterprise sector was 6.444 million full -time jobs and was 7.5 thousand smaller than in February, when a drop in 3,500 was recorded. full -time jobs. In turn, an increase by 1.3 thousand The full -time jobs occurred in January, but was associated with the annual change by the Central Statistical Office attempts in the examined enterprises, which almost always results in a “paper” increase in employment.
An average employment in an annual basis fell by 0.9%in December, and therefore as analysts forecast. The number of jobs in the sector of large enterprises has been decreasing almost continuously since December 2022.
Michał Kubicki
