The extensive offensive of the Russians in the northeast of Ukraine. The tactic used now will not bring significant earnings, I believe military analysts

The intensity of the fights increases in the northeast part of Ukraine, where the Russian army initiated a strong offensive in the Sumî and Kharkov regions and is still trying to expel the Ukrainian forces in the Russian forces in the Kursk and Belgorod regions, EFE's Spanish press agency wrote on Wednesday.

Eight months after the surprise incursion of Ukraine in the Russian province of Kursk, the area now under the control of Ukrainian units has been restricted to only 31 square kilometers, from about 1,300 square kilometers in August, according to the Ukrainian platform for military analysis, after the Russian troops have been subjected to Guevo. Ukrainian in Kursk.

“The enemy almost captured and carry out active assault operations. The situation is complicated,” explains Roman Pogorili, co -founder of the Deeptate platform, according to Agerpres.

As the Russian army tightens the circle in Kursk, it also intensifies its operations in the Ukrainian region, located immediately across the border. According to Roman Pogorili, the Russian army accumulates troops in the Ukrainian village Basivka, 3.5 kilometers from the border, in order to cut the supply line of Ukrainian troops in Kursk.

For his part, a spokesman for Ukrainian border guards, Andrii Demcenko, says that almost every day small Russian assault groups are trying to cross the border and set positions on the Ukrainian territory.

During this time, the Russian attacks in the Ukrainian region of Harkov, in the area of ​​Lipți and Vovceansk, were also intensified, being also intensified both in Kharkov and in the Russian strokes with drones, artillery and aviation.

What the Ukrainian army tries to do

Ukrainian military analysts say that Ukraine is trying to continue operations in Russian border provinces Kursk and Belgorod to prevent Russia to intensify their offensive, although the surface controlled by the Ukrainian army in those provinces is insignificant.

Ukrainian units passed the border in Belgorod a month and continued the fights near two villages, Popovka and Demidovka, without major evolutions in recent days.

Russia has in Kursk about 70,000 soldiers and Ukrainian military experts anticipate that Russian troops will develop the offensive from SUM, after the Ukrainian units on the territory strip that are still on the Russian territory will be fully expelled.

“It is logical that Russia does not disperse these forces on several sectors of the front line, but to keep them united and try to advance deeper into the Sumî region,” argues Eghen Diki, former company commander in the Aidar Battalion and military analyst.

He also believes that Russian forces are currently testing the Ukrainian defense in Sumî and will become clear in the following weeks if the Russian army will intensify its offensive there.

Ukraine has strengthened its region Sumî with “stratified defense, fortifications and other measures,” said a spokesman for the Ukrainian army last week.

A major victory of the Russian army in the two Ukrainian regions, “unlikely”

However, a major victory of Russia in Sumî or Kharkov is “unlikely”, as the Russian army “does not have enough forces to make a significant piercing at this time,” estimates Oleksii Melnik, former counselor of the Ukrainian Minister and military expert at the Razumkov Center, noting a slowing of the Russian bodies, suffer great losses.

The spokesman of the Ukrainian border guards, Andrii Demcenko, claims that at this moment the Russian army has no armored in Sum.

And a Ukrainian military blogger, known as “Alex”, says that, due to the accumulated losses, the Russian army uses moderate, tactical vehicles that limit its ability to make significant progress.

In any case, the Russian offensive is a threat to Ukraine, admits Oleksii Melnik, who warns that “Ukrainian soldiers and economy are in a state of exhaustion after three years of fighting, while the future of US military aid is uncertain.”

The ratio of forces

In order to stop the Russian advance in Sumî, the Ukrainian army needs enough soldiers to keep the defensive lines arranged there, explains the former commander of the Aidar Battalion.

According to the chief commander of the Ukrainian army, General Oleksandr Sîrski, the mobilization target of the Ukrainian army is about 30,000 new soldiers per month, while he claims that the Russian army brings between 8,000 and 9,000 new soldiers on the front.

According to Ukrainian official data, the number of Ukrainian army is constant, at almost 900,000 soldiers. In 2023 the Russian army had about 700,000 soldiers on the Ukrainian front, according to a then statement of Russian President Vladimir Putin.

The war launched by Russia through the invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 has the characteristics of a bloody wear conflict, in which both camps undergo great human losses difficult to replace.

While Russia is still trying to limit itself to volunteering, Ukraine has adopted strict mobilization measures that have led to numerous escape attempts in the country, corruption and forced recruitment actions in which the recruitment officers also resort to brutal methods.