The highest -ranking German military: in 2026, Russia forces will be twice as high
The truth is probably somewhere in between. Bundeswehr, intelligence services and our international partners are unanimous in their analysis: there is a clear threat from Russia. Next year, her armed forces will be twice as high as before the war against Ukraine, a total of 1.5 million soldiers. We see that every year about 1,500 combat tanks are either produced or removed from warehouses and repaired – this is much more than needed for war with Ukraine. And the warehouses are filled with ammunition.
In 2029, Russia will be able to carry out a conventional large -scale attack on NATO. Putin's goal is to weaken and destroy the alliance and to discredit our western form of society. Will this happen? We don't know. It is certainly also a matter of possibilities.
We clearly limit this opponent's chance by deterrent, through our own defense skills. However, we are already observing the hybrid war, attacks and operations of influenced by sabotage, espionage and disinformation from the Russian side, which also take place here in Germany every day.
In the Baltic countries, it is speculated that Putin can use maneuvers this autumn to attack small -scale on their territory. How do you assess it?
Putin is interested in disturbing people in societies. He will test us as soon as the opportunity arises. Of course, this can also happen as part of such maneuvers – although “collapse” are cyclical exercises that take place every four years, this year for the first time under the leadership of Belarus. At the moment, we assume that about 13,000 will take part in maneuvers. soldiers, which is much less than in previous years. But we watch it closely with our partners.
If there was a limited attack on the Baltic State, do you still believe in the US loyalty to the alliance?
Yes, absolutely. At the time, when we talk about the collapse of the certainty of security policy, I see how the bosses of the staffs of all NATO countries are approaching each other. They strive to shorten the ranks and consult and exchange analyzes much more often than in previous years. I just visited the US and did not see any signs of the departure of my American companions from NATO.
Your mission is to prepare the Bundeswehr for war. How far have you come to this task?
I would like us to keep. But this is due to my own impatience. We have the main headlight turned on and we always look at the challenges facing us. But if you look at the rearview mirror, you can see that we have already achieved quite a lot: we adapted the structures of the ministry and the armed forces to national and allied defense. We accelerated orders and, for example, we shortened the time needed to buy a combat tank and delivering it to branches.
At the end of this year, for the first time in the Bundeswehra we will shoot the so -called circulating ammunition [jednorazowe drony bojowe] – In other words, we will not only test such ammunition, but also use it in combat exercises. Our brigade in Lithuania is growing. We also used special resources to fill some holes from the time of peace dividend. They have not yet been eliminated, but we will be able to do it in the coming years thanks to the stabilization of the financing line, which is now possible. I am very calm about it.
Nevertheless, Germany lag behind its obligations towards NATO. At the beginning of this year, a fully equipped, ready -to -fight army division was to be built. Why didn't this happen?
Considering the threat situation, we moved the distribution of this division from 2027 to 2025, but we indicated NATO that we will not yet achieve full operational readiness in some areas. This was also accepted by the alliance. The division is a complex structure in which you need to combine materials, staff, training, logistics, combat support, but also a network of communications.
We are on the right track that the 10th Armored Division reaches full operational readiness this year. But one thing is certain: if the 10th division was needed tomorrow, she would be ready. Not yet equipped as we would like, but ready to fight.
Until now, the limiting factor was money. In the future, you should get “everything you need”, as the candidate for chancellor put it Friedrich Merz. What are the priorities when it comes to shopping?
Air defense has an absolute priority. Then the ammunition and the ability to “deep precise impact”, i.e. long -range weapons systems for precise strokes. These systems also have a significant contribution to deterrent. And of course drones and defense against drones. Therefore, we will have to compensate for the gaps in their abilities, look at the traditional armored struggle and infantry, and above all strengthen combat support. What are the best weapon systems for, if we cannot provide them with ammunition and fuel?
Bundeswehr soldier, 2025
All this must be taken into account – and ordered – in the combat network. We are also aware of what individual weapon systems should be ordered to get these possibilities. This homework was done.
Will you still buy from the USA – will you try to reduce your relationship?
My biggest challenge at the moment is to quickly ensure the operational readiness of the troops – and I have to do it using all the resources available on the market. Of course, we are first looking around in Germany and Europe to see if there is something on the shelves. If not, considering the pressure of time, we will also have to make a purchase in the US if the equipment is available there. Our target date is 2029, so by that time we must be ready to use.
You bear the general responsibility for planning defense orders. Do politicians listen to your military councils?
I have no reason to doubt it.
Was the order for new frigates and submarines at the end of last year, which would not be delivered before 2030, was your suggestion?
My advice consisted of positioning as wide as possible and compensate for the deficits that have arisen in the past. In this way, we created conditions that will allow us to say in 10 or 15 years: it is good that we acted in 2024.
But how does this relate to the priority of war readiness by 2029? The Bundeswehry Association complains that only 70 of 1000 tankers and 19 of 200 Skyranger air defense systems are available in the army.
I always have to look in a broader perspective. We are looking at the organization of the entire armed forces in order to combine ability in such a way that we are ready to war at the latest by 2029. We looked at it at the end of last year: what is ready for contracting, what can be quickly implemented now? It was boats. Tanket and Skyranger systems are now at the top of the priority list. At the same time, we must think about technological jumps and development after 2030.
“How to save a Bundeswehra from her and put an end to a process that prevents you from achieving results?” -General Lieutenant Jurgen-Joachim von Sandrart recently asked. Your answer?
My answer is that we have already made great progress. But general von Sandrart is right, because it is a matter of constant influence on rooted structures, often a slow system in which we can make changes only when we convince people in the Bundeswehra.
Carsten Breuer during the Bundeswehr ceremony, 2024
I have the impression that understanding the pressure on action until 2029 is increasingly penetrating the entire camera. This change in the way of thinking, the need to prepare for the war again, came – I see it with my own eyes during my official inspections. I am proud of how quickly our soldiers adapted to these significant changes and live a new mission.
Bundeswehr shrinks and ages. Should you not disagree with the departing chancellor Olaf Scholzwhich recognized the staffing problem of the armed forces as “possible to solve”?
I have always made it clear that we need an increase in the Bundeswehr potential. Currently, it amounts to approx. 100,000 additional reservists. We know that we can't just recruit them on the labor market. That is why we must rely on military service – in any form.
What is your military council for the future German government: is the volunteer service sufficient or obligatory?
This is a purely political matter, there is no military justification. I say: we need growth potential – and we are prepared in branches for training about 100,000. additional soldiers as reservists for the turn of the decade.
Currently you have about 182 thousand active soldiers and approx. 40 thousand reservists. What numbers do you strive for?
Based on NATO's obligations and the role of Germany as a logistics center for the distribution of troops on the eastern flank, I estimate the demand for 460 thousand. soldiers and reservists. 200,000 remain our goal. active soldiers. I also do not think that the labor market is able to provide much more, taking into account demographic changes.
We have a fixed reserve of 60,000 in the structures that are currently filled. And I expect another 100,000 reservists will come from a pool of 800 thousand. former soldiers who have retired over the years. This leaves a 100,000 gap, which we must fill.
