It is worth talking to France about increasing the contribution of its nuclear deterrence to Europe's security; The more risk factors for Russia, the better for scares and for us – the analyst Artur Kacprzyk assessed in an interview with PAP.
Work is currently underway on the new Polish-French intergovernmental cooperation treaty, which is to replace the document in force since 1991. As he said last Thursday after meeting President Emmanuel Macron, Prime Minister Donald Tusk, currently work on the treaty is at the finish. Although Tusk admitted that he would not reveal the details of the treaty yet, as he assessed – there are many indications that it could be groundbreaking when it comes to mutual security guarantees.
In recent weeks, the statement of the President of France has been widely heard about the beginning of the “strategic debate” about protection, through the French nuclear scares, Paris's partners on the European continent. Macron stipulated that the decisions regarding this weapon would remain the exclusive domain of Paris, but referred to the wide range of the concept of “vital interests” of France, referred to in the nuclear doctrine.
Artur Kacprzyk, an analyst of letters dealing with, among others issues of nuclear deterrence, he told PAP that “the interest of allies in dialogue with France about the role of her nuclear forces in their protection is today much greater than when she used to propose such conversations”, which – as he said – took place since the 1990s. As he pointed out – Poland, but also the Baltic States, and three Baltic states.
“This is determined by uncertainty about the future of the US involvement in NATO, combined with the increasingly aggressive policy and nuclear threats of Russia. It is worth talking to France about increasing the contribution of its nuclear deterrence to Europe's security, but you need to keep in mind the restrictions on what he wants and can offer allies” – the expert pointed out. The more risk factors for Russia, the better for scares and for us. The French nuclear arsenal could better supplement American in the protection of allies, “he added.
Kacprzyk estimated that the script of leaving NATO by the US is still unbelievable, but “no longer unimaginable.” “It is worth thinking about how to try to maintain nuclear deterrence in Europe in such a situation. Although from a military point of view it would be much less reliable in protecting allies than American, a greater rely on the nuclear potentials of France and Great Britain would be the fastest available solution. It would be best to have your own nuclear weapons, but it would be for Poland and other European countries, but it would be for Poland and other European countries A difficult, risky and expensive process, “he said.
Despite this – he noted – French abilities when it comes to the possibility of using nuclear weapons in defense of allies, they are much smaller than American. “France has nuclear potential many times smaller than the USA and Russia, and most of its nuclear forces are separated to defend her own territory,” he noted.
“(France), on the other hand, has greater nuclear abilities than Great Britain, because (ma) not only intercontinental ballistic missiles fired from submarines, but also maneuvering missiles transmitted by planes. The first ones are primarily weapons She would most likely answer with a massive nuclear blow to France, “explained the analyst.
He added that “Russians think about using nuclear weapons in Europe, primarily in terms of more limited strokes.” “They would intimidate the enemy with the perspective of further escalation and force concessions. A more reliable response to such attacks would be a proportional, selective counterattack – and France has some abilities in this area, which creates some risk for Russia, because any exchange of nuclear blows can escalate,” said Kacprzyk.
“The issue of expanding the French nuclear deterrence is also – as he noted – for years the subject of debates and controversy in France. France has decided (in the 1950s) to capture nuclear weapons, doubting in American assurances of the possibility of its use in defense of allies. So far, she did not declare such a possibility so far, he also did not analyst.
In his opinion, in the near future you can expect “more unambiguous than the declaration of France than before” about the possibility of using nuclear weapons in defense of allies.
“In the current conditions, however, I would expect more gradual than revolutionary steps to authenticate such a declaration. I think that it is likely to invite allies to take a greater participation in the exercises of French nuclear aviation, by providing them with conventional support. It is also possible nuclear role, “he pointed out.
According to Kacprzyk, patrolling the airspace of allies could – according to Kacprzyk – to carry maneuvering missiles unarmed into the heads. “On the other hand, more politically controversial and expensive steps would become more real in the event of a drastic reduction in the US involvement in NATO. Then (it would be) much more possible than today that France would decide to place a part of the nuclear arsenal (under French control) at allies, or the expansion of its nuclear forces” – added (PAP)
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